Rising Expectations for U.S.-Iran Talks Drive Broad Rally in Risk Assets
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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Rising expectations surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations fueled a broad rally across risk assets. According to media reports and comments from Trump, the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching a memorandum of understanding on a preliminary agreement, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices. Combined with stronger-than-expected ADP employment data and solid tech earnings, U.S. equities surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh record highs. Bitcoin briefly broke above $82,800, but faced technical resistance near $83,000 and retraced part of its gains. ETH ended its six-day winning streak, while the ETH/BTC ratio continued to weaken.
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BTC: $81,448 (+0.65%); ETH: $2,350 (-0.42%); NASDAQ: +2.02%; S&P 500: +1.46%; WTI: $96.2 (-6.30%); Fear & Greed Index: 47 (previously 46) (Data as of 2026-05-07 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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Altcoins showed selective strength. Following news that Telegram will return to TON as its largest validator, TON extended its rally for a third consecutive day. Meanwhile, likely driven by momentum in U.S. storage-related equities, the DePIN sector—including IO, ICP, FIL, and AR—moved sharply higher.
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🎯 Today’s Focus: U.S. April New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations; Coinbase Earnings; RED token unlock representing 12.20% of circulating supply (~$5.5 million)
Macroeconomics
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Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran are highly likely to reach an agreement, while warning of intensified bombing if talks fail. U.S. media reported that both sides are nearing a memorandum involving a ceasefire followed by a 30-day negotiation period, with key nuclear negotiation terms reportedly softening. Iranian media denied the reports, stating Tehran is still reviewing the U.S. proposal, while senior Iranian officials described the reported progress as merely part of the U.S. “wish list.”
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U.S. April ADP employment increased by 109,000, the highest level in 15 months, exceeding expectations of 99,000.
Industry Developments
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The White House aims to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before July 4, while updates on the BTC strategic reserve are expected within weeks.
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Morgan Stanley is piloting crypto trading services on its E*Trade platform, charging a 50-basis-point fee per crypto transaction.
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The probability of Strategy selling BTC before year-end surged to 49%.
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Ondo Finance, together with JPMorgan Chase, Mastercard, and Ripple, completed the first cross-border, cross-bank exchange of tokenized U.S. Treasuries.
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Circle’s USYC surpassed $3 billion in AUM, becoming the world’s largest tokenized money market fund.
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The market capitalization of tokenized U.S. Treasuries on Ethereum reached a record high of $8 billion.
Alpha Project Performance
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TON: Following Telegram’s return to TON as its largest validator, TON posted gains for three consecutive days, rising 24% over the past 24 hours. TON ecosystem token DOGS also surged 41%.
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DePIN sector tokens including IO, ICP, FIL, and AR rallied broadly, likely driven by momentum surrounding U.S. storage-related equities.
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ZEC/DASH: Speculative interest in privacy coins rebounded, with ZEC briefly breaking above $600.
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USDUC: A Solana-based meme token listed on Binance US surged 777% over the past 24 hours, reaching an $18 million market cap.
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WLFI: The proposal to unlock 62.2 billion WLFI tokens for WorldLibertyFi early supporters and team members passed overwhelmingly. WLFI gained 2.5% over the past 24 hours, extending its rally to five consecutive days.
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ONDO: Ondo, together with JPMorgan, Mastercard, and Ripple, completed the first cross-border, cross-bank exchange of tokenized U.S. Treasuries.
This Week’s Outlook
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May 7: U.S. April New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations; Coinbase earnings; RED token unlock representing 12.20% of circulating supply (~$5.5 million)
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May 8: U.S. April unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls; preliminary U.S. May 1-year inflation expectations and University of Michigan consumer sentiment; SXT token unlock representing 23.20% of circulating supply (~$6.1 million)