Risk Assets Rebound on Peace Talk Expectations While Bitcoin Remains Technically Pressured
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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Expectations for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement continued to strengthen, with multiple media outlets reporting that both sides are expected to sign a draft agreement on Tuesday. The Strait of Hormuz may also reopen to shipping within 30 days. Against this backdrop, international oil prices fell sharply. Although U.S. equities were closed for the holiday, U.S. stock futures moved higher overall. In the crypto market, Bitcoin continued to trade within the 77k–78k range. Despite posting a modest gain, BTC once again faced resistance near 78k due to overhead technical selling pressure, suggesting that rebound momentum remains limited.
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BTC: $77,325 (+0.35%); ETH: $2,113 (+0.63%); NASDAQ: -; S&P 500: -; WTI: $90.3 (-6.92%); Fear & Greed Index: 34 (previous: 30) (Data as of: 2026-05-26 00:00 UTC)
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🎯 Today’s Focus: Reports suggest that the U.S. and Iran may sign a memorandum agreement today.
Macroeconomics
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U.S.-Iran Situation: Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are progressing smoothly, but emphasized that Iran’s enriched uranium must either be “transferred to the United States or completely destroyed.” Meanwhile, reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary understanding regarding Iran’s frozen assets, with the related agreement potentially to be officially announced tomorrow. According to market sources, if the agreement is finalized, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 30 days, while the current ceasefire agreement may also be extended by 60 days. However, regional tensions have not fully subsided. The U.S. Central Command recently stated that it had carried out “defensive strikes” in southern Iran, highlighting that geopolitical uncertainty still remains.
Industry Events
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Vitalik Buterin: The Ethereum Foundation plans to streamline operations and reduce ETH selling.
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Tether partnered with the Georgian government to launch the official stablecoin GEL₮.
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BitMine was preliminarily added to the Russell 1000 Index inclusion list, potentially attracting $2.15 billion in passive inflows.
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Strategy paused BTC purchases and shifted toward a $1.5 billion convertible bond buyback; Michael Saylor did not rule out selling part of its BTC holdings before year-end.
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Indonesia blocked Polymarket.
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Hyperliquid introduced standardized outcome markets based on off-chain events.
Alpha Project Performance
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NEAR: After announcing the launch of dynamic sharding, whale accumulation increased significantly, driving NEAR up 13% over the past 24 hours.
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ONDO: Ondo Finance announced on X that founder and CEO Nathan Allman unexpectedly passed away. ONDO fell 7% over the past 24 hours.
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APT: All three tokenomics proposals passed, including a hard cap supply of 2.1 billion tokens, staking rewards reduced from 5.19% to 2.6%, and a 10x increase in gas fees. APT price remained relatively stable, rising 0.92% over the past 24 hours.
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ESPORTS: Addresses related to the ESPORTS team completed the sale of all 60 million tokens, causing the token to plunge more than 90%.
Weekly Outlook
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May 26: SAHARA unlocks 2.21% of circulating supply (~$2.46M); HUMA unlocks 26.44% (~$11.04M); ECB Governing Council member Slapėnas delivers remarks.
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May 27: Kazuo Ueda speaks at a BOJ-hosted monetary policy conference; WAL unlocks 2.54% (~$8.42M).
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May 28: U.S. April Core PCE data; revised U.S. Q1 annualized real GDP; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks; Meta 2026 annual shareholder meeting; XPL unlocks 4.94% (~$7.92M).
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May 29: Japan April unemployment rate; HYPE unlocks 4.16% (~$582M).
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May 30: Catherine Mann delivers remarks.
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TBD: Further developments in the U.S.-Iran situation.