U.S.–Iran signals easing tensions, BTC rebounds in V-shape above $77,000
🔍 Key Insights
-
📊 Market Review
-
Last week, U.S. equities continued to strengthen, driven by the tech sector, with the Dow Jones hitting new all-time highs for two consecutive days. Over the weekend, sentiment improved further on reports that the U.S. and Iran may reach a peace agreement, including the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting overall risk appetite.
-
On Saturday, Trump stated that the U.S. is close to reaching a deal with Iran, though no concrete details were disclosed, leaving uncertainty around the agreement’s progress. Following these developments, Brent crude briefly dropped more than 4%. Bitcoin and Ethereum rose in tandem, with BTC forming a V-shaped rebound, breaking above $76,000 and $77,000. Altcoins also broadly rallied alongside improving risk sentiment.
-
BTC: $77,059 (+0.41%); ETH: $2,099.69 (-0.85%); NASDAQ: $26,343.97 (+0.19%); S&P 500: $7,473.47 (+0.37%); Fear & Greed Index: 40 (prev. 39) (as of 2026-05-25 00:00 UTC)
-
🧠 Market Insights
-
As signals of easing U.S.–Iran tensions emerged, recently strong-performing sectors such as HYPE and privacy coins led gains. HYPE had already been trending higher on expectations that Hyperliquid is evolving into an “on-chain financial super terminal.” The platform allocates ~99% of trading fees (over $1.16B cumulatively) into an “assistance fund” used for market buybacks of HYPE, with quarterly buy pressure reaching hundreds of millions of dollars—seen by the market as a more structural long-term driver than ETF inflows.
-
Meanwhile, rising demand for privacy trading fueled gains in ZEC, while Railgun (RAIL) surged more than 2x over the past week. The AI narrative also regained momentum: NEAR Protocol rose on expectations of its upcoming dynamic sharding upgrade, while AI-related tokens such as VVV and Grass also rallied.
Macroeconomics
-
U.S.–Iran conflict: Trump posted on social media that the U.S. and Iran have essentially reached a preliminary agreement, including reopening key straits, lifting U.S. port restrictions, and addressing nuclear-related issues. The next round of talks may take place on June 5.
-
A shooting was reported near the White House; the suspect later died in hospital.
Industry Events
-
U.S. Congress reintroduces a Bitcoin reserve bill; Republicans propose accumulating up to 5% of global BTC supply.
-
SEC approves Nasdaq listing of cash-settled Bitcoin index options on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, ticker: QBTC.
-
South Korea’s “crypto tax cancellation” petition surpasses 50,000 signatures in 8 days, entering parliamentary review.
-
South Korea to launch leveraged single-stock ETFs next week, initially tracking Samsung and SK Hynix.
-
Ethereum mainnet monthly transaction count hits a record high, while transaction fees fall to new lows.
-
Russia expands mining regulation, requiring ASIC miners to report network addresses.
-
Aave founder: the protocol will continue its revenue-focused strategy over the next year, emphasizing income diversification.
Alpha Project Performance
-
HYPE: Continued strong momentum, breaking above $63 and hitting a new all-time high, up more than 36% over the past week. The main driver is Hyperliquid’s large-scale buyback mechanism, allocating most trading fees to repurchase HYPE. Whale accumulation continues, with holdings increasing to 144,183 HYPE (~$9.03M).
-
NEAR: Announced dynamic sharding upgrade scheduled for June, enabling autonomous network scaling without manual intervention, reinforcing its high-performance L1 narrative. NEAR has gained nearly 60% over the past week.
-
VVV: Base ecosystem AI narrative strengthens; trading volume rose over 48% day-on-day, with a 10%+ 24h gain and ~40% weekly increase.
-
RAIL: Driven by rising demand for privacy trading, Railgun (RAIL) surged over 21% in 24h and more than 2x over the past week.
-
StablR stablecoins: USDR (USD stablecoin) and EURR (EUR stablecoin) experienced depegging, with EURR briefly dropping ~20%.
Weekly Outlook
-
May 25: COAI unlock (4.42% of circulating supply), ~$2.51M
-
May 26: SAHARA unlock (2.21%, ~$2.46M); HUMA unlock (26.44%, ~$11.04M); ECB Governing Council member Slepsen speaks
-
May 27: BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at monetary policy conference; WAL unlock (2.54%, ~$8.42M)
-
May 28: U.S. Q1 GDP annualized revision; FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks; Meta 2026 annual shareholder meeting; XPL unlock (4.94%, ~$7.92M)
-
May 29: Japan April unemployment rate; HYPE unlock (4.16%, ~$582M)
-
May 30: Bank of England MPC member Mann speaks
-
TBD: U.S.–Iran developments