Multiple Macro Pressures Weigh on Risk Assets, BTC Pulls Back to $65K for Consolidation
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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Rising oil prices and concerns over AI investment returns triggered by tech giants’ earnings jointly pressured market sentiment. The “Magnificent Seven” saw approximately $800 billion in market capitalization wiped out in a single day, marking their worst performance since April 2025. Meanwhile, stronger U.S. employment data boosted expectations of a July rate hike, while higher energy prices intensified inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields higher and weighing on risk assets broadly. The crypto market followed the decline, with BTC facing resistance near $66,500 before retreating, briefly touching around $64,650 where it found support, and then recovering above $65,000. Trading volume continues to contract, with BTC consolidating narrowly around $65,000 as bulls and bears enter a short-term equilibrium. The next directional move will depend on shifts in macro expectations and whether trading volume expands during a breakout.
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BTC: $65,095.7 (-1.55%); ETH: $1,878.34 (-2.88%); NASDAQ: 25,137.69 (-2.15%); S&P 500: 7,408.10 (-1.21%); Fear & Greed Index: 28 (previous: 31) (Data as of: 2026-07-24 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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Recent security incidents have increased, with PancakeSwap and AFX Trade suffering consecutive attacks, resulting in combined losses of nearly $27 million. Since the beginning of the year, 17 crypto shutdowns and bankruptcy events have involved projects with total disclosed fundraising of $8.9 billion, while Odos announced it will permanently cease operations at the end of the month. These developments highlight an accelerating industry shakeout amid tightening liquidity and stricter regulation. Meanwhile, risk assets continue to face multiple headwinds: U.S. initial jobless claims fell to a nearly four-year low, increasing expectations of a July Fed rate hike; escalating Middle East tensions and rising oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher, further suppressing risk appetite.
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Within the crypto industry, capital and resources are increasingly flowing toward infrastructure with stronger compliance capabilities and real-world asset connectivity. Uniswap v4 is exploring compliant asset trading through permissioned liquidity pools, Ondo’s Oasis Pro has received SEC and FINRA authorization to advance tokenized securities services, and LayerZero is enabling cross-chain movement of tokenized bank deposits. These developments suggest that RWA and institutional-grade on-chain financial infrastructure could become key growth drivers in the next phase of the market.
Macroeconomics
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U.S.–Iran Conflict: Iran rejected Trump’s proposed ceasefire plan. Trump said he is seriously considering restarting large-scale military operations. The U.S. has deployed B-1 bombers, warned Iran of major consequences over Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, and stated that Iranian funds currently held and controlled by the U.S. could be used to compensate for losses suffered by ships and cargo. The U.S. House of Representatives passed an Iran War Powers Resolution for the second time, calling on Trump to halt military action against Iran.
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The U.S. imposed additional tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing “forced labor” concerns. The measures take effect today and cover more than 99% of U.S. trade volume.
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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 fell to 187,000, the lowest level since the week of September 24, 2022. The figure was below expectations of 212,000, while the previous reading was revised from 208,000 to 209,000.
Industry Events
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Kazakhstan approved strategic digital mining regulations, requiring mining companies receiving power quotas to allocate part of their mining output to national reserves.
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Argentina plans to ease capital market restrictions, allowing mutual funds to invest in cryptocurrencies.
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Uniswap v4’s new hook standard “Permissioned Pools” enables permissioned asset trading through AMMs, focusing on compliant asset markets.
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Ondo’s Oasis Pro Markets received U.S. regulatory authorization to launch tokenized securities markets and related services.
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Owlto announced the launch of owlto.fun, a native Meme coin issuance platform on Robinhood Chain.
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DEX aggregator Odos will permanently shut down all services on July 30.
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MoonPay launched AI shopping wallet Paybox built on the x402 protocol, and expanded U.S. support for buying and selling crypto via Discover cards.
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U.S. Senate Majority Leader stated that the Clarity Act is expected to miss the legislative window before the congressional summer recess.
Alpha Project Performance
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BANK: Continued rising popularity, combined with KuCoin listing and platform campaigns, drove further gains, with intraday growth of approximately 20%.
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ZAMA: Launched Confidential RFQ protocol, enabling hidden trade size and direction while introducing a fee buyback-and-burn mechanism. Continued privacy narrative momentum drove an intraday gain of approximately 13%.
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KAITO: Mubadala Capital, the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi, partnered with KAITO to launch a tokenized private fund. The catalyst pushed the token up nearly 2%.
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FUN: Integrated SHIB (ERC-20) swaps to expand asset access, while rising trading activity supported an intraday gain of approximately 15%.
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FLUID: Launched an institutional-grade Liquidity as a Service product, providing custody-based DEX liquidity services for asset issuers, driving an intraday gain of approximately 7%.
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AKE: Continued multi-day gains, with social media KOLs expressing continued holding sentiment, further fueling FOMO. Trading volume increased nearly 3x, driving an intraday gain of approximately 40%.
Weekly Outlook
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July 24: U.S. releases July PMI data; Japan releases CPI-related data; Intel reports earnings; SOSO unlocks 7.59% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $7.52 million.
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July 26: CME Group plans to launch around-the-clock gold futures trading.
