Risk assets continue to recover, BTC approaches the 64K level but lacks momentum
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Update
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On Friday, technology stocks continued to support U.S. equities, with the Nasdaq posting a three-day winning streak and the S&P 500 closing at a fresh one-month high. Both indices recorded gains for two consecutive weeks. SK hynix surged over 10% in its U.S. market debut; Meta rose for two straight sessions following positive market feedback on its paid AI model launch, gaining nearly 15% for the week. Oil prices remained supported by geopolitical risks amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over the weekend. In crypto markets, BTC briefly fell below $64,000, touching around $63,800 before rebounding and consolidating near $64,000. The price has tested the key $64,000 resistance level multiple times, but trading volume remains weak, limiting upside momentum. The market remains in a confirmation phase for a potential breakout.
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BTC: $63,781.7 (-0.06%); ETH: $1,806.56 (+1.05%); NASDAQ: 26,281.61 (+0.29%); S&P 500: 7,575.39 (+0.42%); Fear & Greed Index: 28 (Previous: 26) (Data as of: 2026-07-13 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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As the World Cup approaches the final stage, prediction market activity continues to heat up. Polymarket generated over $11 million in revenue this week, reaching a record high, with cumulative revenue surpassing $97 million. This highlights the strong monetization potential of event-driven applications during major sporting events. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market experienced a temporary contraction, with total market capitalization declining by approximately $10 billion from its May peak. June alone saw a $7.7 billion reduction, marking the largest monthly decline since the Terra-Luna collapse, reflecting weaker risk appetite and a temporary withdrawal of capital from on-chain liquidity pools.
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On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act has entered a critical review stage. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated that the Trump administration has no plans to introduce a CBDC and urged Congress to accelerate the legislation, strengthening support for private stablecoins and digital asset regulation. The direction of the bill will directly influence compliance pathways and regulatory expectations for stablecoin issuers, RWA protocols, prediction markets, and other emerging sectors.
Macroeconomics
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U.S.-Iran tensions escalate: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed immediately, with no vessels allowed to pass until the U.S. stops interference. U.S. Central Command confirmed a new round of strikes against Iran, targeting missile and air defense systems near the Strait of Hormuz as well as Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval vessels. Iran responded by launching attacks on U.S. military missile bases in Kuwait, while Qeshm Island was hit by 10–11 missiles (with no casualties reported). Meanwhile, Israel launched artillery strikes on multiple areas in southern Lebanon.
Industry Events
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The U.S. Senate plans to advance full Senate consideration of the CLARITY Act on July 20.
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Circle received final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank, operating as Circle National Trust.
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Trump neither signed nor vetoed the housing bill containing a provision banning the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), allowing it to take effect automatically.
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Uniswap protocol fees have been activated and UNI buyback and burn mechanisms have started; three governance proposals are currently under voting.
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Morgan Stanley accumulated nearly 1,000 BTC through “buying the dip” over the past two weeks, bringing total holdings above 5,700 BTC.
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Russia’s financial monitoring agency will gain authority to oversee all crypto transactions, with transactions above 60,000 rubles requiring reporting.
Alpha Project Performance
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ANSEM: The ANSEM community account has actively promoted an upcoming airdrop campaign and a $5,000 New York competition, driving continued FOMO sentiment and pushing the ANSEM token up over 34% daily.
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DEXE: DeXe saw increased on-chain activity and whale buying, with daily trading volume rising over 104%, while the token gained nearly 28%.
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DODO: DODO experienced a sharp price move, surging from around $0.016 to $0.026, with the token up over 44% daily.
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AVAX: BUIDL’s assets under management on Avalanche exceeded $900 million, increasing by approximately $436 million (105%) in one week. The token initially rose on the catalyst but later pulled back, declining 1.5% on the day.
This Week’s Outlook
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July 13: UP token unlock: 7.44% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $3.05 million.
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July 14: U.S. releases June CPI data; Fed Chair Wosh attends congressional monetary policy hearing; five major Wall Street banks — Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo — release earnings reports.
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July 15: U.S. releases June PPI data; Fed Chair Wosh attends congressional monetary policy hearing; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers remarks; BlackRock and Morgan Stanley release earnings reports; DBR unlock: 12.55% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $10.95 million.
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July 16: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week of July 11; Bank of Korea monetary policy meeting; ARB unlock: 1.94% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $11.57 million; VANA unlock: 8.3%, valued at approximately $3.13 million; GPS unlock: 2.48%, valued at approximately $1.10 million.
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July 17: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson delivers remarks on economic and monetary policy; ASTER unlock: 6.1% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $103 million; ERA unlock: 62.99%, valued at approximately $7.61 million; SPK unlock: 9.09%, valued at approximately $4.87 million; ZK unlock: 1.73%, valued at approximately $1.85 million; SOLV unlock: 25.53%, valued at approximately $1.05 million.
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TBD: Developments in U.S.-Iran tensions.
