Inflation Pressure Returns Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls, BTC Remains Range-Bound Between $64K–$65K
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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U.S. initial jobless claims reinforced concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain a higher-for-longer rate policy, while renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation concerns. U.S. equities closed lower across the board, with mixed performance among technology stocks. Microsoft gained over 2%, reaching its highest level since November last year, while some memory chip stocks suffered sharp declines after earnings, with SanDisk and Western Digital falling nearly 7% and over 10%, respectively. Following reports of Iran striking targets near the Strait of Hormuz, the 10-year Treasury yield hit an intraday high, shifting market focus toward Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. In the crypto market, BTC moved higher with increased volume from around $64,300, retesting the key $65,000 resistance level. However, both attempts to break higher were rejected, confirming the area as a short-term resistance zone. BTC is currently consolidating within the $64,000–$65,000 range, with a slightly bullish bias in the near term.
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BTC: $64,326.2 (-0.51%); ETH: $1,904.01 (-0.25%); NASDAQ: 26,348.35 (-0.06%); S&P 500: 7,709.98 (-0.18%); Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Previous: 25) (Data as of: 2026-08-07 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insight
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U.S. July nonfarm payroll data has become the key short-term market catalyst, with labor market performance directly influencing the Fed’s future rate trajectory. Market expectations remain highly divergent, with forecasts for new jobs ranging from 18,000 to 83,000, reflecting a mix of economic resilience and cooling pressure. A stronger-than-expected payroll report could further reduce rate-cut expectations, keeping the dollar and Treasury yields elevated and pressuring risk assets. Conversely, a significant labor market slowdown could strengthen easing expectations and support risk asset recovery. Ahead of the nonfarm release and developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran agreement, markets remain cautious, keeping crypto assets in a sideways consolidation phase. Meanwhile, the Robinhood Chain ecosystem continues gaining traction, with strong on-chain Meme activity. CashCat’s market cap briefly exceeded $200 million after launching on Robinhood and has since retreated to around $100 million; STONKBROKER, PONS and WEN also posted short-term gains, highlighting continued speculative activity and capital rotation within emerging chain ecosystems despite broader macro uncertainty.
Macro Economy
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U.S.-Iran Situation: Iran and Oman reached a temporary agreement framework with no transit fees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement would establish a new shipping route by allowing commercial vessels to enter the Persian Gulf through Iran-controlled routes and exit through Oman-controlled routes, while excluding transit fees for vessels seeking safe passage. The proposal is considered a “temporary agreement” aimed at creating conditions for Washington and Tehran to announce a new ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations. The framework has received support from Gulf Cooperation Council members, but U.S. approval and the announcement timeline remain uncertain.
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Trump signed an executive order imposing additional tariffs on imported polysilicon and related products under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 came in at 199,000, below expectations of 202,000, while the previous figure was revised from 197,000 to 198,000.
Industry Events
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Tether’s Hadron platform entered Saudi Arabia’s real estate tokenization market.
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MetaMask launched Agent Wallet, enabling AI agents to autonomously execute on-chain transactions.
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U.S. CFTC Chairman stated plans to advance innovation in stablecoin collateralization, perpetual futures and prediction markets.
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Thailand confirmed exemption of cryptocurrency transactions from capital gains tax, with the tax-free period extending through the end of 2029.
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Uniswap co-founder released an automated compounding liquidity design, which will be incorporated into Uniswap’s roadmap.
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Crypto market maker Wintermute registered as a U.S. SEC broker-dealer, expanding into equities, options and crypto ETF trading.
Alpha Project Performance
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CASHCAT: Driven by the Robinhood listing, the token briefly surged over 30%, with market cap exceeding $200 million before retreating to around $100 million. Trading volume increased by over 1.6x, while the token declined approximately 13% on the day.
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HFT: Following exchange announcements regarding HFT trading closure and upcoming spot delisting, short covering near settlement and speculative buying in a low-market-cap environment pushed trading volume up over 1.2x, with the token gaining around 70% daily.
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SKYAI: The token recently entered LunarCrush social trend rankings and DYOR. net short-term bullish rankings multiple times, driving increased market attention and momentum buying, resulting in an intraday gain of around 50%.
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ON: Orochi Network’s partnership with Sumsub to expand digital asset compliance services in Southeast Asia provided ecosystem momentum, driving the token up approximately 60% during the day.
This Week’s Outlook
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August 7: U.S. July nonfarm payroll data release; speeches from 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin, and 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem.
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August 8: STABLE unlock: 3.56% of circulating supply, approximately $30.57 million in value.
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August 9: AVNT unlock: 8.78% of circulating supply, approximately $2.443 million in value; GMT unlock: 1.88% of circulating supply, approximately $2.429 million in value.
