Oil and Long-End Yield Pressures Ease Marginally; BTC Pulls Back After Testing $80K
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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Risk assets broadly recovered overnight, with all three major U.S. equity indices closing higher. The Nasdaq rose 0.66% and Nvidia rebounded more than 2%. Oil prices continued to decline, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.679%, the 30-year yield eased to around 5.208%, and the U.S. dollar weakened slightly. BTC briefly broke above $81,000 overnight but failed to extend gains alongside equities, quickly retreating toward $78,000. ETH also pulled back from above $2,500 to around $2,470, suggesting the move was driven more by profit-taking after the recent rally. In the near term, BTC support is around $77,000–$78,000, while $80,000–$81,000 remains the key resistance zone. For ETH, support is around $2,400–$2,450, with resistance at $2,500–$2,550.
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BTC: $78,521.7 (-0.58%); ETH: $2,442.61 (-1.60%); NASDAQ: 26,151.30 (+0.66%); S&P 500: 7,677.28 (+0.32%); Fear & Greed Index: 65 (previous: 74) (Data as of 2026-08-26 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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After BTC’s pullback from the highs, the momentum previously driven by short covering has weakened, while elevated-position supply is entering a digestion phase. Total crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours reached approximately $566 million, including about $331 million in short liquidations, indicating that short covering played a meaningful role in BTC’s breakout above $80,000. However, after briefly touching $81,000, BTC quickly fell back toward $78,000 and market sentiment cooled at the same time, suggesting that profit-taking and selling pressure have increased following the rapid rally. Meanwhile, U.S. equities rose while oil prices and Treasury yields declined, yet crypto failed to extend gains, indicating that the current pullback is more likely driven by internal leverage and position digestion after an overly rapid move rather than renewed macro deterioration.
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Tonight’s core PCE release and Nvidia earnings will be the two key external catalysts. Spot demand has not shown signs of a meaningful retreat so far: U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded $338 million in net inflows on August 24, marking a sixth consecutive trading day of inflows. The key question now is whether BTC can hold the $77,000–$78,000 area and absorb elevated selling pressure, and whether ETF demand continues to provide support on pullbacks. Markets are entering another macro data waiting period, with attention focused on core PCE and Nvidia earnings tonight. If PCE does not trigger a renewed rise in long-end yields and Nvidia earnings keep risk appetite in tech intact, a recovery above $80,000 would support the view that BTC is undergoing high-level consolidation. If inflation surprises to the upside, pushing Treasury yields higher while tech stocks weaken, a break below $77,000 could open the door to a deeper correction.
Macro Economy
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U.S.-Iran situation: Iran and Oman issued a joint statement proposing a temporary joint maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels only. The two sides are expected to negotiate a permanent shipping route over the next 30–60 days. Trump said U.S. forces had cleared all major shipping lanes in the strait of mines and warned that any vessels laying new mines would be destroyed. Iran rejected the claim that all mines had been cleared as propaganda, stressing that reopening the strait would require an end to the fighting in Lebanon and the lifting of the blockade.
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U.S.-Canada trade tensions escalate: Canada announced tariffs of 15%–50% on approximately $20 billion of U.S. goods, while raising steel tariffs from 25% to 50%. The Trump administration is reportedly discussing further measures against Canada.
Industry Events
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Japan is reportedly considering easing stablecoin regulatory restrictions to allow their use in large-value payments such as automobiles and real estate.
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Japan plans to develop a blockchain-based instant settlement system covering equities and government bonds.
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India plans to issue its first tokenized corporate bond in September.
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Former X product lead: X is expected to support trading for selected cryptocurrencies.
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Thailand’s SEC is seeking public feedback on a draft framework for crypto ETFs.
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USD1 has launched natively on Canton Network, supporting privacy-compliant and atomic settlement.
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The Ethereum community released an EIP proposal for a post-quantum-compatible deposit contract.
Alpha Project Performance
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ZRO: LayerZero plans to launch institutional-grade exchange ATLAS; ZRO gained nearly 5% over the past 24 hours.
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META: A recent MetaDAO governance proposal would allocate $2 million of treasury funds into on-chain dollar assets to improve treasury efficiency. Combined with concentrated buying from the Korean market, trading volume increased by around 3.5x and the token rose nearly 30% on the day.
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STX: Stacks recently integrated with institutional wallet provider Fordefi, brought in Ankr to participate in BTC asset validation, and plans to launch institutional self-custodial BTC staking and ecosystem incentives in September. The positive ecosystem developments drove trading volume up more than 2x, with the token gaining around 17% on the day.
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PENGU: Pudgy Penguins’ CEO posted a cryptic message that the market interpreted as a possible signal that the company is advancing IPO plans. PENGU has risen more than 60% over the past week.
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Meme sector momentum remains strong: “Lobster” gained more than 60% intraday, Solana ecosystem meme token PLSTACIO rose more than 300%, and Robinhood ecosystem meme token MARTIANS gained more than 320% intraday.
Weekly Outlook
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August 26: U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized revision and July PCE data; Nvidia Q2 earnings; HUMA unlock equivalent to 16.7% of circulating supply, worth approximately $9.5 million.
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August 27: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Aug. 27–29); ECB latest monetary policy meeting minutes; Bank of Korea rate decision; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 22.
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August 28: Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole; U.S. preliminary 2026 nonfarm payroll benchmark revision.
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August 29: HYPE unlock equivalent to 4.46% of circulating supply, worth approximately $723 million; FF unlock equivalent to 2.57%, worth approximately $6.2 million.
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August 30: CARDS unlock equivalent to 5.45% of circulating supply, worth approximately $5.6 million; KMNO unlock equivalent to 2.89%, worth approximately $5.6 million.
