Long-End Treasury Yield Rebound Fails to Halt BTC’s Break Above 75K, Risk Appetite Continues to Recover
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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The decline in yields following the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program failed to continue, with long-end Treasury yields rebounding overnight. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.70%, while the 30-year yield recovered to around 5.25%. Meanwhile, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions continued to push energy prices higher, with Brent crude rising to $93.78/bbl and WTI reaching $87.83/bbl. Renewed macro pressure weighed on equities, with the Dow Jones falling 1.32%, the S&P 500 declining 0.87%, and the Nasdaq dropping 1.00%. However, crypto markets extended the previous day’s rally, with BTC continuing higher after breaking above $70K and briefly surpassing $75K during Asian trading hours. Crypto-related equities including Coinbase and Strategy also rose against the broader market trend. Unlike the previous day, when BTC’s move was primarily driven by falling Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, BTC continued to rally despite rising yields and weaker equities, suggesting that buying momentum remains strong after the $70K breakout. In the short term, BTC’s ability to hold the $70K–$71K support zone will be key, with further upside potentially targeting the $74K–$75K resistance area. A pullback below $70K would raise the risk of profit-taking after the sharp rally.
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BTC: $73,022.7 (+5.31%); ETH: $2,327.02 (+3.27%); NASDAQ: 26,067.17 (-1.00%); S&P 500: 7,641.16 (-0.86%); Fear & Greed Index: 72 (previous: 62) (Data as of: 2026-08-21 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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BTC extended the previous day’s rally, breaking through multiple psychological levels during Asian trading hours and briefly moving above $75K, approaching a three-month high. The market has shifted from yesterday’s broad-based high-beta rally toward relative BTC strength, with the next key question being whether sustained capital inflows can support the breakout. The latest U.S. spot ETF data released for August 19 showed approximately $517 million in daily net inflows for BTC ETFs and $189 million for ETH ETFs, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows. BTC ETF inflows reached the highest daily level in more than three months, indicating that the rally is being supported not only by previous short covering but also by renewed spot demand.
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Market performance has started to diverge: while ETH, SOL, L1/L2, DeFi, and Meme assets broadly rallied yesterday, BTC continued gaining more than 8% today while ETH’s gain narrowed to around 4%, with some altcoins showing weaker follow-through. This suggests risk appetite is improving, but capital is currently concentrating on BTC and a limited number of assets with strong catalysts. Going forward, key indicators include whether BTC can remain above $70K, whether ETF inflows continue, and whether high-beta assets such as ETH, SOL, and DeFi tokens can resume broader participation. If BTC stabilizes and capital rotation expands into altcoins, the rally could transition from short-term squeeze-driven momentum into a broader risk appetite recovery; otherwise, BTC-led divergence may increase the risk of a market pullback.
Macro Economy
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The U.S. Treasury increased the size of its long-term Treasury buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, but the initial decline in yields was quickly reversed by the market. The 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 4.70%, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.247%. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the buyback program could be expanded further and highlighted particularly weak liquidity conditions in the 30-year Treasury market.
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U.S.-Iran tensions: The U.S. appears to be shifting toward economic pressure rather than direct military action. Treasury Secretary Bessent said a press conference on new economic sanctions against Iran would be held next Monday. Meanwhile, U.S. forces have reportedly used southern Oman-side routes for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said it may target Gulf-region oil bypass export facilities in an attempt to push up U.S. gasoline prices.
Industry Events
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ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is considering further investment in Polymarket, having already invested more than $1.6 billion in the prediction market platform.
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The U.S. CFTC formally concluded enforcement proceedings against FTX co-founders Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang. Both remain subject to long-term trading bans.
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At the first meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee, CME and Kalshi executives publicly debated prediction market regulation, focusing on market manipulation risks and regulatory standards.
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Franklin Templeton received SEC clearance to introduce tokenized assets into traditional funds, marking the first case in which digital-native assets can be incorporated into conventional investment fund structures.
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Elon Musk’s X is exploring the use of USDC and other stablecoins to compensate content creators.
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World Liberty Financial launched an RWA perpetual contract market denominated in USD1, covering gold, crude oil, and equity assets.
Alpha Project Performance
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OP: An Optimism governance proposal passed, transferring approximately $49 million worth of OP tokens originally allocated for user airdrops into the Strategic Ecosystem Fund. OP gained around 10% over 24 hours.
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Chinese Meme sector: Chinese-language Meme tokens regained market attention, with 「Niu Lai」 leading gains of nearly 50%, while 「Binance Life」 rose more than 12% over 24 hours.
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ONG / ONT: Ontology initiated a mainnet upgrade aimed at lowering barriers for Ethereum application migration and smart contract execution. The ecosystem catalyst drove trading volume up approximately 9.5x for ONG and more than 10x for ONT; ONG surged over 120% intraday, while ONT gained more than 25%.
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XRP: Ripple, Clearpool, and Cicada Partners are building institutional credit infrastructure on XRP Ledger, using RLUSD to provide on-chain financing for enterprises. Trading volume increased approximately 1.5x, while XRP gained around 15% intraday.
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ENA: Ethena recently partnered with FalconX on a $1 billion secured lending program, expanding USDe reserves into institutional lending to create additional yield sources. Expectations around business diversification drove trading volume up nearly 2x, with ENA gaining around 27% intraday.
Weekly Outlook
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August 21: The U.S. releases August PMI data; Japan releases CPI data; AKE unlocks 9.35% of circulating supply, worth approximately $21.2674 million; GWEI unlocks 13.6% of circulating supply, worth approximately $5.1782 million.
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August 22: SENT unlocks 4.4% of circulating supply, worth approximately $4.1634 million.
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August 23: SOON unlocks 5.96% of circulating supply, worth approximately $3.9251 million.
