PPI Cooling Boosts Risk Appetite, BTC Fails to Break 64K Twice Before Entering Low-Volume Recovery
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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U.S. July PPI eased to 4.7% YoY, the lowest since March. Combined with falling oil prices, this further reduced concerns over Fed rate hikes and supported a recovery in risk appetite, pushing U.S. equities broadly higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.65% to a new all-time high. Most major technology stocks advanced, with Tesla rising more than 3.5%; the memory sector rebounded strongly, with SanDisk up more than 13%, while Western Digital and SK hynix gained more than 7%. Cooling rate expectations pushed the 2-year Treasury yield down 4.82 bps, while spot gold fell 1.34%. In crypto markets, BTC benefited from improved macro sentiment but failed to break the $63,900–$64,000 resistance zone on two attempts. It subsequently broke below the $63,200–$63,400 support area and quickly fell to around $62,800–$62,850. Buying emerged rapidly after the market tapped lower liquidity, forming a long lower wick and triggering a V-shaped rebound. BTC has since recovered to around $63,500 and entered a low-volume consolidation phase.
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BTC: $63,482.7 (-0.01%); ETH: $1,886.1 (+0.34%); NASDAQ: 26,803.03 (+0.81%); S&P 500: 7,798.99 (+0.65%); Fear & Greed Index: 29 (previously 29) (Data as of: 2026-08-14 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insight
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The CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee will hold its first meeting on August 20, focusing on regulation of crypto assets, AI, and prediction markets. Chairman Selig has explicitly expressed interest in exploring the “new frontier of finance,” which could provide clearer regulatory guidance for crypto derivatives and prediction markets. However, the SEC has once again delayed its tokenization innovation exemption plan, primarily due to concerns raised by Wall Street and the White House. The core dispute centers on whether third parties should be allowed to issue stock tokens without the consent of listed companies. Given the plan’s overlap with the tokenization provisions of the CLARITY Act, the exemption is likely to remain on hold until the legislative path becomes clearer, creating short-term regulatory uncertainty for RWA and tokenized securities. The CFTC’s positive stance could provide sentiment support for prediction markets and compliant derivatives, but the delayed SEC exemption and ongoing CLARITY Act negotiations remain unresolved. Diverging regulatory timelines may therefore limit a broad-based recovery in risk appetite. With no clear policy direction yet established, markets are likely to remain cautious about the regulatory outlook, providing limited directional guidance for BTC and the broader crypto market. In the short term, price action is likely to be driven more by macroeconomic data and positioning among existing market participants.
Macro Economy
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U.S.-Iran tensions: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. The U.S. military will deploy the USS Washington to the Middle East to replace the USS Lincoln, while U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the blockade of Iran could be maintained for as long as necessary. Iran warned that it would escalate the conflict if its conditions were not met, while also stating that it would seek to exhaust the U.S. through a prolonged conflict.
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U.S. July PPI YoY rose 4.7%, the lowest since March, below the 4.9% expectation and sharply down from the previous 5.5%. July PPI MoM was 0%, versus the 0.20% expectation, while the previous figure was revised from -0.30% to -0.1%.
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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8 came in at 209,000, the highest since the week of July 11, above the 202,000 expected, while the previous figure was revised from 199,000 to 200,000.
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Richmond Fed President Barkin, a 2027 FOMC voting member, commented on the economic outlook, saying that many Fed officials believe current interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to contain inflation.
Industry Events
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The U.S. SEC again delays the tokenization innovation exemption plan and cancels the crypto rules voting meeting.
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The CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee will hold its first meeting on August 20 to discuss crypto assets, AI, and prediction market regulation.
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Baltimore, U.S., files lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket, seeking to prohibit unauthorized sports betting activities.
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JPMorgan plans to test real-time blockchain settlement for Japanese government bonds.
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The Ethereum Foundation abandons the Poseidon hash algorithm and shifts toward SHA-2 or BLAKE2 for its post-quantum cryptography roadmap.
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Hyperliquid adjusts infrastructure rules, lowers the barrier for high-speed data access, and will transfer idle HLP funds into lending pools.
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Tether completes its largest-ever first financial audit, with KPMG issuing an unqualified opinion and reserves exceeding liabilities by $6.814 billion.
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Forward Industries, the largest SOL treasury company, resumes SOL accumulation, bringing its total holdings to more than 7.8 million SOL.
Alpha Project Performance
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ETHFI: Ether.fi added tokenized asset trading, portfolio-collateralized lending, and fiat account functionality. The expansion of platform use cases drove trading volume up nearly 1.6x, with the token gaining more than 15% intraday.
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STONKBROKER: StonkBroker announced the permanent lock-up of 3 million UP staking rights, introducing ongoing liquidity incentives to the trading pool. Combined with its inclusion on the AltsDaddy trending list, the token gained more than 15% intraday.
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PUMP: Pump.fun launched a referral rewards feature, allowing users to earn token rewards based on referred trading volume. Higher platform activity and earnings expectations supported an approximately 8% intraday gain.
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EDEN: A Korean exchange listed EDEN/BTC and EDEN/USDT trading pairs. Inflows from Korean investors drove trading volume up more than 19x, with the token gaining approximately 78% intraday.
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MOMOTA: Concentrated promotion by Solbix and multiple KOLs attracted short-term capital inflows, increasing trading volume by approximately 2.8x and driving the token up around 125% intraday.
Weekly Outlook
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August 14: Applied Materials (AMAT) reports earnings.
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August 15: SEI token unlock: 1.42% of circulating supply, worth approximately $3.7 million; STRK token unlock: 3.61% of circulating supply, worth approximately $3.2 million.
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August 16: YZY token unlock: 22.83% of circulating supply, worth approximately $35.8 million; ARB token unlock: 1.61% of circulating supply, worth approximately $7.2 million.
