Moderate CPI Eases Rate Hike Pressure, BTC Struggles to Rebound and Remains Range-Bound
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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U.S. CPI came in moderate, easing rate hike expectations and supporting a recovery in risk appetite. U.S. equities opened higher, with AI-related stocks broadly gaining; SK Hynix rose more than 9%, while Cerebras jumped over 11% intraday but fell more than 16% after-hours following its earnings release, highlighting continued pressure for earnings validation. Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East capped the upside in risk appetite. In crypto markets, BTC stabilized around $63,200 and staged a modest rebound, briefly reaching $64,400–$64,500 after the CPI release, but failed to break through and quickly gave back its gains, falling below $64,000 and $63,600 before returning to around $63,200–$63,300. Although BTC has found support near its previous low, persistently weak trading volume and insufficient buying momentum indicate strong overhead resistance. In the short term, BTC is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with a breakout not yet imminent.
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BTC: $63,486.9 (-0.18%); ETH: $1,879.79 (-0.14%); NASDAQ: 26,588.49 (+0.54%); S&P 500: 7,748.5 (+0.26%); Fear & Greed Index: 29 (previously 27) (Data as of: 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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The rapid expansion of the prediction market has also drawn regulatory attention. The New York City Council has launched investigations into platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, focusing on alleged deceptive marketing targeting young users and claims involving “fake bets and fake profits” promotional videos. The New York Attorney General has also sued Kalshi for allegedly operating illegal gambling activities, seeking at least $36 billion in penalties and disgorgement. Meanwhile, the CFTC issued new guidance warning that platform incentive programs could facilitate wash trading and market manipulation, requiring the industry to strengthen compliance as it scales. At the same time, the CFTC ordered Kalshi to continue operating on an emergency basis, citing the potential systemic risks that forced liquidation of Bitcoin positions could create, indicating that regulators are applying tighter controls while still recognizing the functional value of prediction markets. In the short term, investigations in New York and CFTC guidance may constrain user acquisition and retail marketing models; over the medium to long term, however, a clearer regulatory framework could push prediction markets from rapid, loosely regulated expansion toward more compliant growth. Leading platforms that establish strong positions within the regulatory framework are likely to gain more sustainable growth opportunities, while also providing a compliance reference for DeFi and on-chain financial applications.
Macro Economy
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U.S.-Iran stalemate continues: Trump reiterated that the U.S. has full control over the Strait of Hormuz and will maintain such control, with the U.S. maritime blockade continuing. An Iranian spokesperson responded that if Iran faces another threat, global infrastructure will also face threats. Pakistan’s mediators are seeking to extend the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
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U.S. July CPI (non-seasonally adjusted) rose 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations of 3.4%, versus 3.5% previously.
Industry Events
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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group plans to leverage blockchain to launch an instant settlement service for Japanese government bonds.
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Hawaii, U.S., signed legislation to fully ban crypto ATMs, effective October 1.
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New York City Council launches an investigation into four major prediction market platforms over alleged deceptive marketing.
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U.S. CFTC issues a warning regarding compliance risks associated with prediction market platform incentive programs.
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The U.S. SEC approved Franklin Templeton funds to use the BENJI on-chain system for cash management.
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Fidelity plans to add ETH staking and quarterly cash distributions to its nearly $900 million Ethereum ETF.
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Kalshi and DoubleZero partner to launch a real-time full order book data feed.
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Miden plans to launch the privacy-focused stablecoin USDCx, expected to go live alongside mainnet.
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Standard Chartered’s Anchorpoint launches the first phase of its HKD stablecoin HKDAP issuance.
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SKALE launches “Agent Pit,” allowing developers to train AI agents before deploying them on Polymarket.
Alpha Project Performance
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PROM: Korean exchanges launched PROM/KRW and PROM/USDT trading pairs, attracting strong buying from the Korean market. Trading volume increased more than 5x, and the token rose over 45% intraday.
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HMM: A Robinhood ecosystem meme coin, HMM benefited from whale inflows, concentrated bullish calls from multiple KOLs, and new exchange listings. Trading volume increased approximately 1.5x, while the token surged around 80% intraday.
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VIRTUAL: Virtuals recently launched a robotics project accelerator and stated that its robotics business has become one of the largest sources of Unitree G1 robot data outside China, expanding AI Agent applications into physical robotics. Trading volume increased approximately 1.2x, and the token rose more than 10% intraday.
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ONE: Harmony suffered a major security attack, with cross-chain bridge services suspended and minting blocked. Attackers unauthorizedly minted approximately 4 billion tokens, of which around 2.8 billion were transferred to trading platforms, triggering significant selling pressure and causing the token to fall approximately 40% intraday.
Weekly Outlook
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August 13: U.S. July PPI data; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week of August 8; UP unlocks 7.44% of circulating supply, worth approximately $3.0638 million; Cisco (CSCO) and Coherent earnings after Wednesday’s market close; Google product launch event.
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August 14: Applied Materials (AMAT) earnings release.
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August 15: SEI unlocks 1.42% of circulating supply, worth approximately $3.7 million; STRK unlocks 3.61% of circulating supply, worth approximately $3.2 million.
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August 16: YZY unlocks 22.83% of circulating supply, worth approximately $35.8 million; ARB unlocks 1.61% of circulating supply, worth approximately $7.2 million.
