
US-Iran Negotiation Deadlock Weighs on Risk Appetite, BTC Falls Below 65K and Consolidates Around 64K on Low Volume
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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Trump demanded that Iran compensate for casualties from wars and attacks, while Iran made the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz a precondition for negotiations. The widening differences pushed talks into a deadlock, driving oil prices higher and weighing on risk appetite. U.S. technology stocks came under pressure, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones retreating from record levels. Nvidia fell nearly 3% following reports related to a $500 billion AI financing plan, Apple dropped 1.5% after analyst downgrades, and Intel declined over 4% after announcing a stock issuance plan. In the crypto market, BTC failed to extend its weekend rebound, falling back after multiple unsuccessful attempts to break above the $65,300–$65,400 resistance zone. The price then breached the key $65,000 support level, triggering short-term selling pressure and dropping to around $63,800–$63,900. BTC is currently trading narrowly around $64,000, with shrinking trading volume and entering a low-volume consolidation phase.
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BTC: $63,976.0 (-1.43%); ETH: $1,873.06 (-1.96%); NASDAQ: 26,605.36 (-0.32%); S&P 500: 7,753.11 (-0.06%); Fear & Greed Index: 29 (previous: 30) (Data as of: 2026-08-11 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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The Ethereum ecosystem is entering a new phase of infrastructure upgrades and economic model adjustments. Vitalik’s updated roadmap highlights quantum security, privacy protection, native Rollups, protocol simplification, and Blob/Gas market mechanisms as key priorities. This reflects Ethereum’s strategic shift from pure scaling toward balancing security, privacy, and long-term sustainability, moving from “supporting all types of activities” toward “designing specialized mechanisms for different use cases.” In contrast to its long-term vision, Ethereum faces short-term fundamental pressures. ETH staking has exceeded 41.7 million ETH, accounting for roughly one-third of circulating supply, with increasing staking concentration creating liquidity constraints and centralization risks. Discussions around EIP-8363, including staking rewards, issuance mechanisms, and value capture, highlight Ethereum’s ongoing effort to rebalance security budgets, token incentives, and ecosystem value distribution. ETH’s role may gradually evolve toward a store-of-value and infrastructure asset. Meanwhile, continued institutional accumulation of ETH (such as BitMine holding nearly 5.8 million ETH) indicates renewed market reassessment of its long-term value. However, concentrated holdings, locked staking positions, and unrealized losses among large holders may increase potential market pressure amid weak price performance, requiring close monitoring of liquidity risks and institutional capital movements.
Macro Economy
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US-Iran Situation: The outlook for US-Iran negotiations deteriorated further, with talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz reaching an impasse. Iran stated that it was close to reaching an agreement with Oman to reopen the Strait, but set multiple conditions before agreeing to full reopening, including ending the U.S. maritime blockade, withdrawing U.S. air and naval forces near Iran, compensating for recent conflict losses, lifting sanctions, and unfreezing Iranian assets unconditionally. Iran rejected direct negotiations with the U.S. until these conditions are met. Trump responded by demanding compensation from Iran for deaths caused by wars, attacks, and protests. Meanwhile, the Houthi movement claimed responsibility for an attack on a Saudi refinery near the Red Sea.
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Trump approved a 90-day extension of the Jones Act shipping exemption, with the scope shifted toward energy transportation.
Industry Events
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Strategy sold 1,690 BTC last week, marking two consecutive weeks of BTC reductions; Strive accumulated 147 BTC during the same period, bringing total holdings to 20,167 BTC.
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Vitalik updated Ethereum’s roadmap, highlighting quantum security, privacy protection, and AI-assisted formal verification as new priorities.
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The UK FCA plans to establish a regulatory framework for tokenized gold.
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The New York Stock Exchange is developing an on-chain settlement platform for tokenized securities, with the SEC approving extended trading hours.
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The U.S. SEC will review customized issuance rules for crypto asset-specific investment contracts on August 14.
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Base launched the Builder Grant Program, providing ecosystem developers with up to $5,000 in funding support.
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BIP-110 developers plan a hard fork on September 1 to modify Bitcoin’s proof-of-work algorithm.
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Bitcoin developers released an entropy visualization tool to analyze Bitcoin private key randomness generation.
Alpha Project Performance
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BLUAI: Bluwhale recently launched an AI Agent trading competition attracting developer participation. Multiple KOL bullish comments triggered social media FOMO sentiment, while its ranking among top exchange gainers further boosted activity. Trading volume increased by more than 1x, with the token rising over 75% daily.
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CRV: Curve expanded CRV rewards for its lending market, while Grayscale’s inclusion of CRV in its Q2 DeFi Fund increased demand expectations, driving the token up over 11% daily.
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TIBBIR: TIBBIR entered the Base AI trending project rankings, combined with bullish KOL commentary, driving trading volume up nearly 1x and pushing the token up over 15% intraday.
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LINK: Standard Chartered released its first research coverage on LINK, setting a $200 price target for 2030. The report boosted sentiment, with LINK gaining nearly 3% daily.
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JUP: Jupiter launched Lend v2, allowing users to earn both lending interest and trading fee revenue from deposit/borrow positions. The impact on the token was limited, with JUP rising slightly by 0.5%.
Outlook This Week
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August 11: CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer release earnings; ALLO unlocks 8.6% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $5.67 million.
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August 12: U.S. releases July CPI data; RAIN unlocks 7.07% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $643 million; APT unlocks 0.66%, valued at approximately $6.8 million.
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August 13: U.S. releases July PPI data and weekly initial jobless claims for August 8; UP unlocks 7.44% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $3.06 million; Cisco (CSCO) and Coherent release earnings after Wednesday’s market close; Google holds product launch event.
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August 14: Applied Materials (AMAT) releases earnings.
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August 15: SEI unlocks 1.42% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $3.7 million; STRK unlocks 3.61%, valued at approximately $3.2 million.
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August 16: YZY unlocks 22.83% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $35.8 million; ARB unlocks 1.61%, valued at approximately $7.2 million.




