US–Iran Stalemate and UAE Exit from OPEC Weigh on BTC
Summary
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Macro: U.S. media reported that Iran may submit a revised negotiation proposal via Pakistan. Trump stated that Iran hopes to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible, while Iran emphasized its control over the strait and proposed imposing transit fees. Meanwhile, the UAE announced it will exit OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1 and gradually increase production, temporarily pushing oil prices higher. In addition, reports that OpenAI failed to meet internal performance targets triggered a reassessment of AI investment returns, further weighing on risk sentiment and dragging U.S. equities lower.
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Crypto Market: Amid repeated macro-driven volatility, Bitcoin has largely tracked the pullback in U.S. equities. Prices retreated from around $79,000 to a consolidation range near $76,000, with the structure shifting from an uptrend to a weaker sideways pattern. Bitcoin dominance remains elevated at 60.5%, while altcoins have broadly corrected in tandem.
Project Developments
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Hot tokens: APE, ZKJ, ORCA
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ZKJ: A significant dislocation between perpetual futures and on-chain spot prices emerged, with spreads widening to 74%–77%, driving a short-term surge. The token is up over 16% intraday.
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APE: The blue-chip NFT collection Bored Ape Yacht Club has risen 81% over the past 30 days, lifting sentiment and pushing APE up more than 8% on the day.
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PUMP: Pump.fun announced the permanent burn of approximately $370 million worth of PUMP tokens and introduced a 50% revenue buyback-and-burn program, supporting a 6% daily gain.
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RED: RedStone launched its RWA-focused settlement layer, RedStone Settle, aimed at addressing liquidity gaps in DeFi RWA assets. The token rose about 2%.
Major Asset Performance
Data as of Apr 29, 2026 00:00 (UTC+0)
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BTC: $76,334.7 | 24h: -1.34%
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ETH: $2,289.42 | 24h: -0.23%
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S&P 500: 7,138.81 | 24h: -0.49%
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NASDAQ: 24,663.80 | 24h: -0.90%
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WTI: 102.321 | 24h: +0.31%
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Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 26 (previously 33) — Fear
Today’s Outlook
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FOMC interest rate decision
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference
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Earnings: Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon
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HYPE unlock: 4.16% of circulating supply (~$409 million)
Macro Highlights
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UAE to exit OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1 and gradually increase oil production
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Trump rejects Iran’s revised proposal, stating nuclear issues must be prioritized; Iran is expected to submit an updated peace proposal
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Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claims full control over the Strait of Hormuz
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The U.S. prohibits individuals and entities from paying transit fees to Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz
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Bank of Japan holds its policy rate at 0.75% for the third consecutive meeting, in line with expectations
Crypto Policy
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White House: Trump’s “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” plan may be unveiled within weeks; Congress may revisit it via the ARMA Act
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The U.S. SEC seeks public comments on NYSE Arca’s 85% asset rule proposal, which may impact crypto ETF listing structures
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The U.S. “CLARITY Act” may be reviewed in May
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Japan’s Financial Services Agency classifies JPY stablecoin issuer JPYC as a “fund transfer service provider”
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Japan clarifies rules for crypto usage in real estate transactions, strengthening AML requirements
Industry Highlights
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T. Rowe Price submits a third amendment for its “Active Crypto ETF” (ticker: TOKN, fee: 0.75%)
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Colombia’s largest pension fund, Porvenir, launches a voluntary crypto investment portfolio, primarily allocating to IBIT
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State Street plans to launch tokenized fund services in Luxembourg by the end of 2026
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Ondo Finance partners with Broadridge to add proxy voting functionality for tokenized securities holders
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Japan’s Bitbank launches a crypto credit card supporting BTC bill payments
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Jack Dorsey’s Block reports $2.2 billion in BTC reserves (28,355 BTC) with on-chain verification
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Polymarket completes its upgrade with CLOB v2 now live and seeks CFTC approval to enter the U.S. market
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Tether launches a modular Bitcoin mining system to improve efficiency and reduce costs
Weekly Outlook
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Apr 29: Fed FOMC rate decision; Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference; earnings from Google / Meta / Microsoft / Amazon; HYPE unlock (4.16%, ~$409M)
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Apr 30: US Q1 GDP (advance); Eurozone Q1 GDP (prelim); earnings from Samsung / Apple; OP unlock (1.5%, ~$4.00M)
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May 1: EIGEN (5.55%, ~$6.80M) unlock; ZETA (3.25%, ~$2.46M) unlock
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May 2: ENA (1.27%, ~$12.03M) unlock
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TBD: US–Iran negotiations