US–Iran Talks Stall, Global Markets Under Pressure and Volatile
Summary
Macro: On Friday, US CPI data initially lifted market sentiment, with equities opening slightly higher. However, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a record low, and uncertainty סביב US–Iran weekend negotiations weighed on markets, leading to a mild pullback, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.11%. On Monday morning, as US–Iran talks hit an impasse, crude oil futures surged sharply.
Crypto Market: With US–Iran negotiations failing to reach an agreement, geopolitical risks have intensified again. At the same time, institutional demand has weakened, with CME Bitcoin futures activity dropping to a 14-month low, signaling cooling demand. Under these combined pressures, BTC briefly fell to around $70,000 and is now consolidating near the $71,000 level.
Project Updates
Trending Tokens: RAVE, TRADOOR, TRUMP
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RAVE: Listing on new trading platforms drove strong capital inflows, triggering significant price volatility. The token has surged over 10x in the past four days, with a single-day gain exceeding 170%.
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TRADOOR: Previously rallied on its Robinhood listing, then experienced a sharp crash followed by a rebound, gaining nearly 60% in a single day.
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TRUMP: Multiple whales have been accumulating TRUMP tokens to secure eligibility for a Trump-hosted dinner event, driving short-term speculative activity.
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WLIF: Justin Sun accused WLIF of blacklisting his address, drawing market attention. The project was also criticized for allegedly externalizing liquidation risks via Dolomite-related lending mechanisms. The team later responded by disclosing revenue and buyback plans, leading to heightened volatility, with the token up slightly by 1.4% on the day.
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AAVE: Aave V4 increased deposit caps across multiple assets to accommodate more liquidity, but the token price declined in line with the broader market.
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PYTH: Launched the Pyth Data Marketplace to strengthen its data product ecosystem, but the token price fell amid overall market weakness.
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HYPE: Grayscale added HYPE and VIRTUAL to its potential investment list. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes reportedly purchased around 26,000 HYPE tokens (~$1.1 million), though the price still weakened alongside the broader market pullback.
Major Asset Performance
Data as of April 13, 2026, 00:00 (UTC+0)
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BTC: $70,742.30 | 24h: -3.15%
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ETH: $2,191.40 | 24h: -4.08%
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S&P 500: 6,816.89 | 24h: -0.11%
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NASDAQ: 22,902.89 | 24h: +0.35%
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WTI Crude: $104.41 | 24h: +6.08%
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Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 12 (vs. 16 24h ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speech
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Kazuo Ueda to visit the US (Apr 13–18) for G20 and IMFC meetings
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UP token unlock: 6.42% (~$1.44M)
Macro Developments
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A second round of US–Iran talks may take place within days, with Middle Eastern countries pushing to extend the ceasefire.
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The US military is expected to block Iranian maritime traffic at 10 PM on April 13.
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Donald Trump stated the US Navy may blockade the Strait of Hormuz and intercept vessels paying transit fees to Iran.
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The third round of US–Iran negotiations has concluded, with key issues still unresolved.
Crypto Policy
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Argentina has included crypto assets within the net worth calculation for qualified investors.
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South Korean regulators are considering whether confiscated gains from insider trading in crypto should be included in the second phase of legislation.
Industry Highlights
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Tether-linked Super PAC’s first ad spending directed to a company associated with its CEO has raised concerns.
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Michael Saylor posted another Bitcoin Tracker update, with potential new accumulation data expected next week.
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UK regulators are urgently assessing risks related to Anthropic’s latest AI model.
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Robinhood has excluded some prediction market products due to manipulation risks, prioritizing partnerships with compliant platforms.
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Exodus Movement reported BTC holdings of 628 and SOL holdings of 17,541 as of end-March.
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Ripple Strategy partnered with Trident to build a digital payment system based on the RLUSD stablecoin.
Weekly Outlook
April 13:
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Kazuo Ueda speech; G20 & IMFC meetings
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UP unlock: 6.42% (~$1.44M)
April 14:
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US March PPI (YoY & MoM)
April 15:
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Andrew Bailey panel at Columbia University
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Christine Lagarde speech
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DBR unlock: 14.16% (~$9.94M)
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CYBER unlock: 5.76% (~$1.76M)
April 16:
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US Senate hearing on Fed Chair nomination (Warsh)
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Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speech
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Andrew Bailey speech at IMF event
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Eurozone CPI (final)
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John Williams speech
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G20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors meeting
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ARB unlock: 14.16% (~$13.86M)
April 17:
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SPK unlock: 10.94% (~$5.83M)
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ASTER unlock: 6.64% (~$109M)
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IR unlock: 13.48% (~$6.63M)
April 18:
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Thomas Barkin speech
TBD:
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US–Iran conflict developments