Week's Focus: The cryptocurrency market maintained rangebound trading under the combined influence of the FOMC decision's macro backdrop and institutional capital flows. The sustained low volume of ETF inflows, coupled with macro policy guidance, contributed to ongoing market liquidity challenges. While trading sentiment in non-US markets has stabilized, Bitcoin's rebound remains constrained by selling pressure from high-cost positions and profit-taking by long-term holders.
I. Institutional Capital Flow Assessment: ETF Demand Sluggishness and Market Confidence Baseline
ETF Flows as an Indicator of Institutional Participation
The Bitcoin Spot ETF is widely viewed as a crucial indicator for measuring institutional capital inflow and market activity. However, last week, ETFs recorded only $280 million in net inflows, reflecting a trend of nine consecutive weeks of insufficient institutional liquidity.
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Institutional Confidence Assessment: The persistently low ETF data suggests that U.S. institutional investors hold a relatively lower level of confidence regarding short-term price movements at the current price range.
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Impact on Liquidity Structure: The lack of support from institutional buying makes the market more susceptible to existing selling pressure, and a deficit of incremental capital presents the primary challenge to current market liquidity.
The sluggishness in ETF funding flows constitutes a structural resistance to Bitcoin's price advancement.
II. Macro and Micro Divergence: FOMC Signals and Global Trading Sentiment Analysis
Macro Policy and Trading Sentiment Discrepancies
The signals released by the FOMC meeting had a complex effect on risk assets:
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Macro Policy Context: While the RMF bond purchase program aims to ease liquidity tension in the banking system, the reduction in the 2026 interest rate cut projection in the dot plot is interpreted on a macro level as a relatively conservative monetary policy guidance.
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Market Interplay: Concerns over Oracle's earnings and AI valuation led to a correction in US tech stocks, indirectly affecting high-risk assets like cryptocurrency.
At the micro-trading level, market sentiment exhibited differentiation:
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Non-US Market Sentiment Stability: In non-US markets, represented by Binance, Taker selling pressure significantly eased, with the CVD turning positive again, indicating that extreme panic sentiment in this market segment has alleviated.
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US Institutional Prudence: Coinbase's CVD gradually declined and turned negative, corroborating the ETF data, suggesting that large domestic US capital continues to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
III. On-Chain Chip Analysis: Price Support and Selling Pressure Sources
Chip Turnover and Price Action Analysis
On-chain data indicates a high rate of chip turnover within the market, reflecting continued contention between long and short positions within the price range:
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Sources of Selling Pressure: Selling pressure above the current price originates primarily from two sources: First, trapped capital that entered at higher levels (e.g., $102k, $109k, $117k) is engaging in stop-loss or loss-cutting during volatility; second, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are continuously realizing profits at current price levels. These two selling behaviors jointly constitute a structural resistance to Bitcoin's rebound.
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Strongest Defensive Support Zone: The $83,500 - $84,000 range has accumulated approximately 1.08 million BTC, with relatively stable holding costs. This area serves as a critical defensive zone in the current market.
IV. Structural Analysis: Liquidity Concentration on BTC and Altcoin Pressure
Structural Shift: Bitcoin's Core Status Amidst Liquidity Constraints
Despite overall weak trading sentiment, a structural shift in capital flow has emerged:
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Liquidity Concentration: Bitcoin's trading volume proportion climbed to 50.58%, reaching a two-year high. During periods of increased market uncertainty and liquidity tightness, capital tends to concentrate on BTC, the asset with the highest market capitalization and liquidity.
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Altcoin Market Performance: Altcoin trading volume continued to decline by 5.64%, reflecting their increased liquidity pressure.
This trend suggests that Bitcoin's dominance is further accentuated during phases of market uncertainty.
Key Conclusions and Outlook: Market Rangebound Oscillation and Observation Points
In the absence of new macro tailwinds and a reversal in ETF capital flows, the Bitcoin price is expected to continue oscillating within the $84,000 to $94,500 range.
The market trend remains dependent on the subsequent trajectory of ETF funding flows and macro economic policy guidance.