Bitcoin Hashrate Drops to 2021 Lows

Key Takeaways: Bitcoin Hashrate Drop to 2021 Lows

Bitcoin network hashrate suffered a 12% drawdown since November 2025 — the largest since China's 2021 mining ban — falling to 970 EH/s, the lowest level since September 2025.
Severe US winter storms forced large-scale curtailment, especially in Texas, causing short-term drops of 30–40% and up to 60% in major pools like Foundry USA (200 EH/s offline).
Mining difficulty is projected to drop 16–18% at the next adjustment (February 8, 2026), from 141.67 T to 116–121 T, significantly improving profitability for remaining active miners.
Miner sentiment is deeply stressed with profitability at 14-month lows and daily revenues hitting yearly bottoms ($28M), yet curtailment programs help offset forced BTC sales and provide alternative revenue.

Bitcoin Hashrate Collapse in Early 2026

In the opening weeks of 2026, Bitcoin's SHA-256 hashrate experienced its most severe sustained drawdown since the 2021 China mining ban, declining approximately 12% from November 2025 peaks and reaching 970 EH/s — levels last observed in September 2025. Short-term shocks were even more dramatic, with 30–40% network-wide drops and up to 60% reductions in major US-based pools.

The primary trigger was a brutal US winter storm that overwhelmed power grids in key mining regions (ERCOT, PJM, TVA), forcing operators to curtail operations to prevent blackouts and profit from demand-response programs. This event has reignited discussions around BTC mining difficulty adjustments, miner capitulation risk, network resilience, and the potential Bitcoin price floor amid continued macro pressure.

Primary Causes of the Hashrate Decline

Extreme Weather & Grid Strain — Arctic conditions and surging heating demand caused widespread power outages and emergency grid measures. Miners with curtailment contracts voluntarily powered down rigs, selling electricity back to the grid at premium rates.
Geographic Concentration Risk — US-centric pools (especially Texas) absorbed the heaviest impact. Foundry USA lost 60% capacity (200 EH/s), while overall network saw 455 EH/s go offline at peak.
Pre-Existing Pressure — Post-2024 halving economics had already squeezed margins; the storm acted as an acute catalyst rather than the sole driver.

Current 7-day moving average hashrate hovers near 970 EH/s, with gradual recovery expected as weather normalizes.

Mining Difficulty Adjustment & Network Dynamics

Bitcoin automatically adjusts difficulty every 2016 block (2 weeks) to maintain 10-minute block intervals:

Prolonged hashrate decline → slower block production (12–14 minutes observed at peak).
Next retarget (February 8, 2026): Consensus estimates project a 16–18% downward adjustment (from 141.67 T to 116–121 T), one of the largest recent shifts.
Immediate effect: Significantly higher rewards per hash for online miners → improved hashprice, daily profitability, and margin relief.

This self-correcting mechanism is Bitcoin's core antifragility feature — it prevents permanent profitability death spirals and encourages rapid re-entry once conditions stabilize.

Miner Sentiment & Profitability Stress

Current miner conditions are among the most challenging since mid-2024:

Profitability index at 14-month lows (21 on many trackers).
Daily mining revenues dropped to yearly lows ($28 million).
Hashprice remains below breakeven for a large portion of the fleet, increasing forced BTC sales risk.
Silver lining: Curtailment contracts (especially in ERCOT) generate substantial alternative revenue (millions in some cases), reducing the need for distress selling and providing breathing room.

Sentiment reflects deep capitulation, yet the upcoming difficulty drop offers a meaningful lifeline for surviving operators.

BTC Network Security & Price Floor Implications

Security Considerations — Lower hashrate temporarily reduces the economic cost of a 51% attack. However, global distribution (non-US miners absorbed load) and no observed disruptions demonstrate resilience.
Price Floor Support — Difficulty relief significantly eases miner selling pressure → reduced downward supply overhang. Historical hashrate shocks have frequently preceded local bottoms.
Current Support Zone — BTC has defended the $80,000–$85,000 range despite macro headwinds; post-adjustment stabilization could reinforce this floor if broader sentiment improves.

Trading Insights & Positioning Strategies

Miner Equity Plays — Stocks with strong curtailment agreements and diversified energy sources often rally sharply after hashrate shocks due to anticipated profitability relief.
BTC Spot & Derivatives — Consider accumulation near $80K–$85K during extended fear phases; use February 8 difficulty retarget as a potential upside catalyst.
Risk Controls — Reduce leverage significantly; set stops below recent swing lows ($78K–$80K); monitor real-time hashrate (BitInfoCharts, Hashrate Index) and grid status updates.
Contrarian Perspective — Prolonged low hashrate + miner capitulation frequently marks local exhaustion — a classic setup for reversal if macro tailwinds emerge.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's hashrate collapse to levels not seen since 2021 underscores real-world vulnerabilities but also highlights the protocol's elegant difficulty adjustment mechanism. Miner sentiment is severely tested, yet curtailment programs and the impending 16–18% difficulty drop provide critical relief.

The Bitcoin price floor near $80K–$85K remains defensible, with February 2026 adjustment serving as a pivotal catalyst. Traders who monitor recovery signals and manage risk tightly can position for potential stabilization or reversal in this macro-volatile environment.

FAQs

What triggered Bitcoin's hashrate drop to 2021 lows?

Severe US winter storms forced miners (especially in Texas) to curtail operations, causing a 12% network decline since November 2025 — the worst drawdown since China's 2021 ban.

How low did Bitcoin hashrate fall?

To 970 EH/s (lowest since September 2025), with short-term drops reaching 30–40% and major pools like Foundry USA losing up to 60% capacity.

When is the next BTC mining difficulty adjustment?

Expected around February 8, 2026, with a projected 16–18% downward move (to 116–121 T), greatly improving margins for remaining miners.

Does the hashrate drop threaten Bitcoin network security?

Short-term yes —The lower hashrate reduces attack costs, but global distribution and no disruptions demonstrate resilience.

What does this mean for Bitcoin's price floor?

Difficulty relief reduces miner selling pressure; supports the $80K–$85K zone, with potential rebound if macro conditions stabilize.