US-Iran Negotiations Re-engage, Crypto Legislation Sees Breakthrough
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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The US-Iran situation has entered the second round of negotiation framework discussions, with further progress still awaiting evaluation from both sides. Optimism surrounding diplomatic developments, combined with a strong earnings season, continued to push US equities to fresh all-time highs, providing positive sentiment support for the crypto market. Meanwhile, improving momentum on the crypto policy front further boosted market confidence, as Bitcoin posted three consecutive daily gains and once again tested the $80,000 threshold. However, from a technical perspective, overhead selling pressure remains significant, as BTC failed to firmly hold above the previous high of $79,400 after three separate attempts. A sustainable breakout will likely require stronger and more persistent capital inflows.
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BTC: $78,565 (-0.15%); ETH: $2,322 (+0.26%); NASDAQ: +0.89%; S&P 500: +0.29%; WTI: $102.5 (-2.79%); Fear & Greed Index: 40 (previously 47) (Data as of 2026-05-04 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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The Clarity Act has reached a major turning point, with a compromise now formed around the “stablecoin yield/reward provision,” preserving exchanges’ ability to offer rewards or yield to stablecoin holders under regulated conditions. The bill is expected to hold hearings in mid-May, with Senate voting potentially scheduled for June or July. According to Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing and being signed into law within 2026 has risen to 69%. If successfully advanced, the legislation would significantly improve regulatory certainty for the crypto market and provide a more stable institutional framework for further institutional capital inflows.
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🎯 Today’s Focus: CME plans to launch AVAX and Sui futures contracts on May 4; Billions Network to initiate BILL token TGE on May 4
Macroeconomics
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Iranian media reported that Iran’s new 14-point negotiation proposal includes a 30-day deadline focused on ending the conflict rather than extending the ceasefire. US media stated the proposal does not require lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade before direct negotiations. Iran’s foreign ministry said it is currently reviewing the US response, with current talks excluding nuclear issues. Trump described Iran’s proposal as “unacceptable,” stating the US will begin operations Monday to guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, while also noting that ongoing dialogue between US and Iranian representatives could still produce highly positive outcomes.
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OPEC+ plans to raise production targets by 188,000 barrels/day starting in June.
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The “Fed whisperer” reported a notable shift in internal FOMC discussions, with officials beginning to debate under what conditions further rate hikes may become necessary.
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The US SEC is reportedly planning to reduce public company earnings disclosure frequency from quarterly to semiannual, with the proposal already passing White House review.
Industry Events
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Bloomberg reported that a compromise has been reached on the stablecoin yield/reward clause: while additional restrictions will be introduced, exchanges will still retain the ability to offer stablecoin-related incentives. Banks had previously advocated for a full ban to prevent deposit outflows. This development is viewed as clearing a major obstacle for subsequent legislative advancement.
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Brazil’s central bank announced that starting October 1, stablecoins and cryptocurrencies will be prohibited for eFX cross-border remittance settlement, though individuals may still purchase and hold crypto assets.
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JPX’s CEO stated that Japan may push for crypto ETFs after legal revisions and tax clarity, potentially as early as 2027, otherwise delayed until 2028.
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The US Senate passed a resolution immediately banning senators and their staff from participating in prediction market trading or betting.
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Tether released its Q1 2026 attestation report: net profit reached $1.04 billion, while excess reserves rose to a record high of $8.23 billion.
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The Ethereum Foundation’s Soldøgn Interop initiative is accelerating the Glamsterdam upgrade, including a 200M gas floor, stabilized multi-client ePBS, completed external builder testing, and finalized EIP-8037 repricing parameters.
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The US Southern District of New York issued an injunction against Arbitrum DAO, prohibiting the transfer of approximately $71 million in frozen ETH related to the KelpDAO hack case.
Alpha Project Performance
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CZ announced that his new book Freedom of Money is now officially available in English, Chinese, and audiobook formats, with all proceeds to be donated to charity. Binance ecosystem meme assets surged, with the Freedom of Money meme market cap surpassing $10 million.
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BSC ecosystem projects remained highly active, with LAB, B, SIREN, TST, 4, and BANANAS31 posting collective gains.
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PARTI: Particle Network released its Universal Accounts roadmap, including Universal Deposit SDK and AI Agent-focused account capabilities. PARTI surged 27% over the past 24 hours.
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HYPE: Hyperliquid officially launched Outcome Markets (HIP-4) on mainnet, introducing fully collateralized contracts with fixed-range settlement.
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WLFI: The team was exposed for allegedly “secretly dumping” 5.9 billion tokens (worth up to $320 million). Although WLFI rebounded 8% over the past 24 hours, it remains down 20% on the week and continues setting new lows.
Weekly Outlook
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May 4: CME plans to launch AVAX and Sui futures contracts; Billions Network to initiate BILL token TGE
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May 5: Potential renewed Japanese yen intervention; US April ISM Services PMI; prediction market ETF launch expected during the week; AMD/Strategy earnings; ENA unlock (2.12% of circulating supply, ~$17.3M); OPN unlock (12.22%, ~$5.3M)
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May 6: US April ADP employment report
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May 7: US April NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Coinbase earnings; WLFI community voting deadline on token unlock proposal for early supporters and founding team; RED unlock (12.20%, ~$5.5M)
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May 8: US April unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls; preliminary US May 1-year inflation expectations; University of Michigan consumer sentiment; SXT unlock (23.20%, ~$6.1M)