Bitcoin Hashrate in 2026: Latest Trends, Mining Difficulty & Network Security Analysis

2026/02/02 10:09:02

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Key Takeaways: Bitcoin Hashrate in Early 2026

Bitcoin network hashrate reached multiple all-time highs above 1 Zettahash/s (ZH/s = 1,000 EH/s) in January 2026 before temporary weather-related curtailment caused sharp short-term declines.
The largest drawdown since China's 2021 mining ban (12% from November 2025 peaks) was driven by severe US winter storms forcing Texas miners to shut down rigs to protect the grid.
The next difficulty adjustment (expected around February 8–10, 2026) projected at -16% to -18% (from 141 T to 116–121 T), delivering significant profitability relief to remaining active miners.
Miner sentiment remains stressed with profitability near 14-month lows, yet curtailment programs generated substantial alternative revenue and limited forced BTC sales during the crisis.

Bitcoin Hashrate as a Core Network Health Indicator

Bitcoin hashrate — the total computational power securing the network — remains one of the most watched on-chain metrics in 2026. It directly reflects miner participation, network security strength, and miner profitability expectations. Sudden changes in hashrate often precede or confirm shifts in mining difficulty, miner behavior, and even price action.

In early 2026, the Bitcoin hashrate story has been one of extremes: record-breaking peaks followed by the sharpest short-term drawdown since the 2021 China mining ban. These swings highlight both the growing scale of the mining industry and its continuing vulnerability to localized energy disruptions. Understanding current hashrate dynamics is essential for any serious Bitcoin trader or long-term holder.

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Record Highs Followed by Sharp Weather-Induced Decline

Bitcoin hashrate set multiple all-time highs in January 2026, briefly crossing 1 ZH/s (1,000 EH/s) before external shocks triggered a rapid reversal.

Peak phase — 7-day moving average reached 1.05–1.13 ZH/s in mid-to-late January, reflecting continued miner expansion and new hardware deployment despite post-halving margin pressure.
Acute drop — A severe US winter storm (particularly impacting Texas/ERCOT grid) forced widespread curtailment → network hashrate fell 12% overall since November 2025 peaks and up to 30–40% in the most intense days.
Major pool impact — Foundry USA (largest US pool) lost 60% capacity (200 EH/s offline at peak); overall 455 EH/s went temporarily offline.

The decline ranks as the largest drawdown since China's 2021 mining ban, underscoring the growing but still geographically concentrated nature of modern Bitcoin mining.

Mining Difficulty Adjustment: The Automatic Stabilizer

Bitcoin difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks (2 weeks) to keep average block time near 10 minutes:

Current difficulty 141.67 T (as of late January 2026).
Next retarget (February 8–10, 2026): Consensus estimates project a downward move of 16–18% (to 116–121 T), one of the largest adjustments in recent years.
Immediate effect: Substantially higher block rewards per unit of hashrate → improved hashprice, daily revenue, and margin relief for miners that remain online.

This downward adjustment acts as Bitcoin’s built-in antifragility mechanism: it prevents prolonged miner capitulation and quickly incentivizes re-entry once external conditions (weather, energy prices) normalize.

Miner Sentiment & Profitability Realities

Despite record hashrate peaks earlier in the year, miners are facing one of the most difficult periods since mid-2024:

Profitability index at 14-month lows (21 on many trackers).
Daily mining revenue dropped to yearly lows ($28 million in late January).
Hashprice frequently below breakeven for a large portion of the fleet, increasing forced BTC sales risk.

Positive counterbalances:

Curtailment revenue — Texas miners earned millions of selling power back to the grid during peak demand, significantly reducing the need for distress selling.
Post-adjustment relief — The large upcoming difficulty drop will dramatically improve margins for surviving operators.

Sentiment reflects deep capitulation among marginal producers, but resilience among those with flexible energy contracts and diversified operations.

Network Security & Bitcoin Price Floor Dynamics

Security impact — Temporary hashrate reduction lowers the economic cost of a 51% attack, but global distribution (non-US miners absorbed load) and no observed chain disruptions demonstrate continued resilience.
Price floor support — Difficulty relief significantly reduces miner selling pressure → decreased downward supply overhang. Historical hashrate shocks have often preceded local bottoms or recovery phases.
The current support zone — BTC has repeatedly defended $80,000–$85,000 despite macro headwinds; post-adjustment stabilization could reinforce this floor if broader sentiment improves.

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Trading Insights & Positioning Strategies

Miner equity plays Stocks with strong curtailment agreements and diversified energy sources often rally sharply after hashrate shocks due to anticipated profitability relief.
BTC spot & derivatives Consider gradual accumulation near $80K–$85K during extended fear phases; use the February 8–10 difficulty adjustment as a potential upside catalyst.
Risk controls reduce leverage significantly during uncertainty; set stops below recent swing lows ($78K–$80K); monitor real-time hashrate dashboards and grid status updates.
Contrarian perspective: Prolonged low hashrate + miner capitulation frequently marks local exhaustion — a classic setup for reversal if macro tailwinds (softer Fed, ETF inflows) emerge.
Long-term view Hashrate ultimately follows price. Sustained BTC price recovery above $90K–$100K would likely trigger aggressive new miner onboarding and renewed hashrate growth.

Stay updated with in-depth market analysis and mining-related articles on the KuCoin Blog.

Conclusion: Hashrate Volatility Reinforces Bitcoin’s Resilience

Bitcoin’s hashrate rollercoaster in early 2026 — record peaks followed by the sharpest drawdown since 2021 — illustrates both the industry’s explosive growth and its continuing exposure to localized energy shocks. Yet the network’s rapid recovery, automatic difficulty adjustment, and miner adaptability once again demonstrate Bitcoin’s antifragile design.

The upcoming 16–18% difficulty drop in February 2026 offers immediate margin relief and sets the stage for renewed miner profitability if BTC price stabilizes or climbs. Traders who monitor real-time hashrate recovery, position ahead of the adjustment, and manage risk tightly can turn this macro reset into opportunity.

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FAQs

What caused the recent Bitcoin hashrate drop?

Severe US winter storms forced large-scale curtailment in Texas and other regions, leading to a 12% overall decline since November 2025 — the worst drawdown since the 2021 China mining ban.

How low did Bitcoin hashrate fall in early 2026?

To 970 EH/s (lowest since September 2025), with short-term drops reaching 30–40% and major pools like Foundry USA losing up to 60% capacity temporarily.

When is the next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment?

Expected around February 8–10, 2026, with a projected downward move of 16–18% (to 116–121 T), significantly boosting profitability for active miners.

Does lower hashrate threaten Bitcoin network security?

The short-term, yes — attack cost falls — but global distribution, rapid recovery, and no observed disruptions show continued resilience.

What does the hashrate drop mean for Bitcoin’s price floor?

Difficulty relief reduces miner selling pressure, supporting the $80K–$85K zone; post-adjustment stabilization could act as a rebound catalyst if macro conditions improve.

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