This week epitomized the dramatic shifts in the exchange landscape, with clear signals of Centralized Exchange compliance "onshoring" and convergence emerging in late 2025. Top-tier platforms are squeezing the survival space of mid-tier exchanges through two primary paths:

 

First, CEXs that once temporarily exited core markets due to regulatory pressure are leveraging the current political window (e.g., the Trump administration's crypto-friendly stance) or new compliance pathways to storm back into high-net-worth jurisdictions like the US, UK, and Europe. Second, exchanges represented by Coinbase are dismantling the wall between Crypto and TradFi, establishing "Universal Accounts" as the new industry standard. For other players in the sector, simple spot matching and derivatives businesses are no longer the sole battlegrounds; future barriers to entry will require a combination of more diverse capabilities.

 

According to Bloomberg, Binance is exploring a capital restructuring to reboot Binance.US. Specific concessions may include reducing founder CZ's controlling stake, actively aligning with the Trump family's crypto project, World Liberty Financial, and seeking deeper interest alignment with global asset management giant BlackRock. To regain its ticket to the US market, Binance appears willing to pay a heavy price in terms of equity and control.

 

Binance is not an isolated case. In the past month, KuCoin secured registration with Austrac in Australia and a MiCA license in Austria, stepping into the regulated chessboards of Europe and Australia. Last week, two years after exiting the UK market, Bybit chose a cleverer path: resuming UK operations by partnering with the licensed institution Archax (which acts as the approver for its financial promotional content).

 

Alongside compliance onshoring and expansion, exchange product forms are undergoing an irreversible qualitative change, most notably this year through the dissolution of product boundaries. Platforms like Coinbase and Bitget are breaking the isolation between Crypto and TradFi, making "Universal Accounts" the new industry standard. Coinbaserevealed its ambition in this week's "System Update": no longer content with being just a crypto exchange, it is challenging brokerages. Users can now use USDC in their accounts to buy US stocks directly, or even trade Solana altcoins via an integrated Jupiter aggregator. This means Coinbase is attempting to package "Nasdaq" and an "On-chain Casino" into a single App. Similarly, Bitget launched a "Universal" strategy in offshore markets, allowing users to use USDT as margin to trade Gold, Crude Oil, Forex, and US Stock CFDs. This evolution further enhances the user trading experience, eliminating the need for investors to frequently deposit and withdraw across multiple platforms to allocate different assets.

 

On the other hand, against the backdrop of product convergence, veteran CEX Bitfinex attempted to stir the market this week with a primal pricing tactic. Bitfinex announced a platform-wide, all-category permanent zero-fee policy. This is not a short-term promotion, but covers spot, margin, perpetual contracts, securities, and even OTC trading; fees are zero for both Makers and Takers. The intent is to siphon market-wide existing liquidity and high-frequency traders through extreme low costs. This exerts uncomfortable pressure on the current brutal CEX battlefield. If competitors start lowering fees or going free, how should CEXs build their own exclusive moats?

 

The "Hard Mode" of the exchange sector is slowly unfolding. For other players, simple token-to-token matching and contract businesses may no longer be core competitive barriers. The future high ground has shifted to capabilities in compliance channels, capturing real liquidity, cross-asset settlement, and extreme cost control to survive the intensifying war.

 

Last week, global macro variables centered on two pivotal central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut at its December FOMC meeting. However, through the updated dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, the Fed sent a clear signal: future easing room is limited, and the neutral real interest rate may settle significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Simultaneously, on December 19, the Bank of Japan officially raised its policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%, initiating a new tightening cycle. The synchronized yet opposing moves by these two major central banks—shifting away from extreme policies—mark a transition from "coordinated easing expectations" to a new phase of regional divergence and structural maneuvering.

 

Against the backdrop of the Fed's "cutting but not loosening" stance, the U.S. Treasury yield curve continued its bear steepening trend. While short-end yields retreated following the policy rate cut, long-end yields remained elevated or even edged higher, constrained by high deficits, bond supply pressure, and inflation uncertainty. This combination alleviated short-term financing pressures but simultaneously raised the discount rate for equity assets, weighing on the valuations of high-duration growth stocks and risk assets. Meanwhile, though the BoJ’s hike was partially priced in, its symbolic significance outweighed the rate adjustment itself: the world’s last major central bank to maintain ultra-loose policy is systematically exiting the stage, further clarifying the trend of narrowing U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials.