1. Summary
This week, the overall market trend has been stable with a slight upward trend, benefiting from optimistic expectations for macro technology stocks, the easing of geopolitical tensions, and positive signals from the US cryptocurrency policy - Trump approved the investment of cryptocurrency assets in 401(k) retirement plans and suspended the regulation of "cutting off banking services", driving Bitcoin to rise by 4.45% cumulatively. On-chain data shows that long-term position selling pressure has weakened, with the main selling pressure coming from short-term profit-taking and high-level unwind positions. High-level chips are quickly taken up by new funds, forming a healthy turnover, which is expected to consolidate the support at $117k–$120k and help further impact new highs. In terms of purchasing power, listed companies continue to dominate, with net inflows of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, reflecting optimistic market sentiment. Despite the total market capitalization rebounding to approximately $3.93 trillion and trading volume declining continuously, investors' trading willingness remains cautious, and risk appetite and sector linkage have not fully recovered. Overall, the market has solid support and potential, but short-term attention should be paid to capital flows and changes in market sentiment.
2. Trump nominated a dovish commissioner,The market is increasing its bet on a rate cut in September
2.1 The Federal Reserve's signal of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of dovish members have increased expectations for further cuts; corporate financial reports are positive and investment is active, dispelling concerns about economic recession
8.5 - Fed's Daley: The time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and it is more likely that there will be more than two rate cuts within the year.
8.6 - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for the United States in July was 50.1, lower than both the previous value and expectations.
8.6 - The final value of the S&P Global Services PMI for the US in July was 55.7, higher than both the previous value and expectations.
8.7 - Fed's Daley: The labor market is slowing down, tariffs only have a short-term impact, and the Fed will soon cut interest rates.
8.7 - Fed's Kashkari: Two rate cuts this year still seem appropriate.
8.7 -- White House, USA: Apple Inc. will increase its commitment to US investment by $100 billion.
8.8 - Trump nominates Stephen Millan as Federal Reserve Board member
8.8 - Waller becomes a popular candidate for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.
8.8 - The Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25 basis points.
CME FedWatch Tool – Fed Meeting Rate Probability Forecast Summary
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MEETING DATE
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300-325
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325-350
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350-375
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375-400
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400-425
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425-450
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|
2025/9/17
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0.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
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0.00%
|
86.50%
|
13.50%
|
|
2025/10/29
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0.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
48.50%
|
51.50%
|
0.00%
|
|
2025/12/10
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0.00%
|
0.00%
|
28.21%
|
71.79%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
2.2 Technology companies increase their US investment plans to circumvent tariffs, and tariff uncertainty gradually diminishes
8.5 - The European Union will suspend its trade countermeasures against the United States for six months.
8.5 - Trump: Will significantly increase the tariffs paid by India.
8.6 - Trump interviewed at CNBC Financial Forum: Tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips will be announced in the coming week, starting with a relatively small amount and eventually reaching 250%;
8.6 - If the EU fails to fulfill its obligations, a 35% tariff will be imposed on the EU.
8.7 - White House, USA: Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods.
8.7 - White House, USA: Apple Inc. will increase its commitment to US investment by $100 billion.
8.11 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Expected trade issues to be resolved by the end of October.
3. Equity & Crypto Market Performance
3.1 The positive news about technology ignited market sentiment, US stocks rebounded strongly across the board
Driven by significant positive news such as Apple's 100 billion investment plan and the release of GPT-5, investors' expectations for the long-term growth of the technology sector have significantly increased. This week, US stocks swept away the gloom of macroeconomic concerns from the previous week. Led by technology stocks, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose by 2.43% and 3.87% respectively, while the Russell 2000 also recorded a 2.38% increase. Meanwhile, weak demand for US Treasury auctions led to a sharp rise in yields, highlighting the pressure on the bond market, but stock market sentiment was not significantly impacted. The Volatility Index (VIX) fell to around 15, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite.
Figure 1: Nasdaq & S&P 500 & U.S. Treasury Bond Trends
3.2 A major breakthrough in encryption policy, Market sentiment has rebounded
In addition to the optimistic expectations for technology stocks on the macro front and the positive effects of easing geopolitical conflicts, the US crypto policy has also released positive signals - Trump approved the investment of crypto assets in 401(k) retirement plans and halted the regulatory practice of "cutting off banking services" to the crypto industry. Considering that the total size of the US retirement account system is as high as $12.5 trillion, even if only a very small proportion of funds flow into the crypto market, it is expected to bring significant incremental funds. Boosted by this expectation, BTC has risen 4.45% this week, fluctuating within the range of $112.6k-119.2k throughout the week.
Figure 2: BTC Price Trends
3.3 Prices have rebounded but trading remains cautious, Market sentiment is not overheated
As of August 10th, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrency assets rebounded to $3.9317 trillion, marking a 7.56% increase week-on-week. The stabilization of prices drove the rebound in market capitalization. However, the total market trading volume declined for the third consecutive week, reaching only $1.0554 trillion this week, a decrease of 8.01% compared to the previous week, indicating that investors' trading willingness remains cautious. In terms of structure, Bitcoin trading volume was $409.83 billion, a decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous week, with its market share slightly declining to 39.12%. Altcoin trading volume decreased by 5.58% compared to the previous week, indicating that even though the market has rebounded, risk appetite and sector linkage effects have not yet recovered.
Figure 3：Trading Volume of BTC and Altcoins
4. Crypto Trend Analysis
4.1 Low activity on the chain,High-level turnover acceleration
This week's on-chain data shows that Bitcoin addresses have moved a cumulative total of 226,000 BTC, a decrease of 10.1% from the previous week, and the turnover activity remains low. The distribution structure of holdings indicates that long-term selling pressure has significantly weakened, and the current selling pressure mainly comes from short-term profit-taking and unwind positions at high levels: the loss-unwinding zone above $117K has reduced its holdings by 77,000 BTC, becoming the main force of reduction; profit-taking positions in the $103K–$110K range have reduced by about 50,000 BTC, a decrease of 22% from the previous week; long-term profit-taking of medium and low-priced chips has slowed down simultaneously, with medium-priced positions (between $75K and $100K) reducing by about 38,000 BTC and low-priced positions (<$75K) reducing by 39,000 BTC, a decrease of 5% and 35% respectively from the previous week.
Meanwhile, an additional 221,000 chips were introduced within the $114K–$117K range. The high-priced unwind chips were swiftly absorbed by buying orders and shifted to a higher price range, with the closing price settling at $119.2K. Overall, the release of high-priced selling pressure and the absorption by new funds have resulted in a healthy turnover. If the capital inflow continues, it will help establish a solid support in the $117K–$120K range in the short term, paving the way for further attempts to reach new highs.
Figure 4: BTC Unspent Realized Price Distribution
4.2 The chip structure has not changed significantly,117k is the short-term support level
After a week of market fluctuations, the chip structure has not undergone significant changes. The position volume in the $116,900-$118,200 range is as high as 1,036,490 BTC, with the short-term first support near 117k and the potential test support at 110k. The 104k range has chip support of approximately 438,000 BTC, providing a technical foundation for mid-term defensive positioning; while 97k, as the third structural support, has completed sufficient turnover, forming a bottom chip support zone, which is expected to provide solid support in the event of a deep market correction.
Figure 5: BTC Chip Structure
4.3 Market Summary and Outlook: Institutional investors experience FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), while retail investors remain cautious
Driven by macroeconomic favorable conditions and supportive U.S. cryptocurrency policies, the market has rebounded this week. On-chain data indicates a reduction in long-term position selling pressure, with the main selling pressure coming from short-term profit-taking and unwind of high-level positions. High-level chips are quickly absorbed by new funds, forming healthy turnover. This is expected to solidify support at $117k–$120k, facilitating further attempts to reach new highs. In terms of purchasing power, listed companies continue to dominate, with net inflows of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, reflecting optimistic market sentiment. Despite the total market capitalization rebounding to approximately $3.93 trillion, trading volume has continued to decline, and investor trading willingness remains cautious. Risk appetite and sector correlation have not fully recovered. Overall, the market has solid support and potential, but short-term attention should be paid to capital flows and changes in market sentiment. Next week's CPI data and Russia-U.S. talks will be key market nodes.
Figure 6: BTC Chip Supply Situation
4.3 Listed companies continue to lead in purchasing power, with Bitcoin ETF funds boosting market sentiment
This week, the purchasing force has continued to be dominated by listed companies, accumulating a total of 7,189 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $760 million. Although Bitcoin ETF funds typically do not bring about sustained selling pressure, their inflows are often regarded as a barometer of market sentiment and purchasing power. Since Trump allowed pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin spot ETFs have achieved net inflows for three consecutive days, with a weekly total of $246 million, fully reflecting the optimistic investment sentiment in the market.
Figure 7: BTC Buyer Analysis
5. Regulatory Trends
America
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The US CFTC, in collaboration with the White House plan, has joined hands with the SEC to launch the "Crypto Sprint" campaign
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The US CFTC explores allowing registered futures trading platforms to conduct spot contract trading of cryptocurrencies
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SEC: Liquidity pledge activities are not considered securities
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Trump signs executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to invest in cryptocurrencies
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Trump signs executive order to halt "cutoff of banking services" to the cryptocurrency industry
Asia
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The Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission names 10 cryptocurrency exchanges operating without authorization
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Bloomberg: China requires local securities firms to stop promoting stablecoins to prevent market overheating and potential risks
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The Office of the Vice President of Indonesia explores the use of Bitcoin as a national reserve
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The RWA registration platform has officially gone live in Hong Kong
Europe
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The new EU regulations grant banks a regulatory advantage in tokenized assets, potentially accelerating the development of tokenization in Europe
Other
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El Salvador will establish its first Bitcoin bank
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Ukraine will deliberate on the cryptocurrency regulation bill by the end of August
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Brazil plans to hold public hearings to discuss the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve
6. Stablecoins, ETFs, and institutional investment reach new highs, and technological integration accelerates development
The stablecoin market continues to expand, with USDC leading the way to new highs
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The market capitalization of USDC has surpassed $65 billion, reaching a new all-time high
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WLFI announces the launch of the USD1 stablecoin rewards program
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Ripple will spend $200 million to acquire the stablecoin platform Rail
The crypto ETF market is active, and institutional layouts are accelerating
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Harvard University holds $116 million of iShares Bitcoin ETF
Listed companies and institutions continue to increase their holdings of cryptocurrency assets
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Hanyu Pharmaceutical signed a strategic cooperation agreement with KuCoin, resulting in the stock price reaching its daily limit
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Japanese Metaplanet increases its holdings of Bitcoin by 463 again
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Bitmine holds 833,000 ETH, worth nearly $3 billion
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The Ether Machine has increased its holdings by 10,605 ETH, with a total position exceeding 345,000 ETH
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SharpLink Gaming has repeatedly increased its ETH holdings, with the total position exceeding 520,000 ETH
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The Royal Government of Bhutan transfers 517 BTC to a newly created wallet
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180 Life Sciences Launches $425 Million ETH Treasury Strategy
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Fundamental Global Accelerates Ethereum Reserve Strategy (with $200 million in funding)
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Cosmos Health secures $300 million in funding for its ETH financial strategy
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Parataxis plans to establish a Bitcoin treasury company with a capital of $640 million
Exchange trading volume hits new highs, with new products continuously emerging
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In July, Hyperliquid's trading volume approached $320 billion, hitting a record high
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pump.fun established the Glass Full Foundation and injected token liquidity
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The trading volume of Backed tokenized stocks has surpassed $2 billion
Other
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Vitalik: Ethereum will enable instant transfer of native assets across L1 and L2
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OpenAI officially releases GPT-5
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Galaxy plans to issue tokenized stocks GLXY
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Polymarket predicts that the probability of ETH reaching a new high within the year will rise to 74%
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Paxos Reaches $48.5 Million Settlement with New York Regulator
7. Next week's outlook
AUG 2025 Crypto Calendar
August 11: Trump stated that US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would be introduced "around this week"; LAYER's unlocked liquidity accounted for 9.51%, worth approximately $17 million
August 12: US July CPI data; APT unlocks 2.20% of the circulation, worth approximately $52.1 million; Barkin, the FOMC voter and President of the Richmond Fed, delivers a speech in 2027
August 13: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech
August 14: US July PPI; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting members and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee deliver speeches on monetary policy in 2025
August 15: Summit between Russian and American leaders; US retail sales in July; Ghana requires virtual asset companies to complete registration before August 15; FTX plans to initiate the next round of compensation registration on August 15, releasing a reserve of $1.9 billion for disputed claims
8. Reference
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defillama.com
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coinmarketcap.com
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tradingview.com
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cryptoslam.io
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token.unlocks.app/
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dune.com
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itez.com/events
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cryptorank.io/
