source avatarNick Research

Share
Share IconShare IconShare IconShare IconShare IconShare IconCopy

➥ Every cycle has a group of alts that look strong against BTC Right now, the names people keep watching are $ZEC, $NEAR, $HYPE and a few other high-beta leaders They have stronger narratives, cleaner catalysts, better relative strength and more active buyers than the average alt But I still think most of them finally share the same fate when $BTC turns down hard The reason is simple: crypto still trades on one core liquidity cycle - when $BTC is stable, capital moves outward to alts - but when $BTC starts breaking down, the market stops pricing upside narratives & starts pricing liquidity risk This is where strong alts usually fail, not because the project suddenly becomes bad but the buyer base changes behavior When volatility rises, funds reduce risk - market makers widen spreads → leverage gets cut → retail stops rotating - profits from outperformers get harvested first, you’ve seen such cases with @CryptoHayes sold his entire $ZEC, $HYPE and $WLD That is why the strongest alts often become the best source of exit liquidity Once BTC dominance rises again, that bid disappears quickly This is why I do not judge alts only by how hard they pump against $BTC I look at 4 things: - is the move driven by real demand or only narrative rotation? - is there enough liquidity to survive forced selling? - are unlocks, emissions or insider supply creating future pressure? - can the token keep attracting buyers when BTC stops going sideways? Historically, every cycle shows the same pattern - strong alts outperform during BTC consolidation - they peak when traders believe “this time it is different” - then BTC breaks structure, liquidity contracts and correlation goes back to 1 In bullish rotation, alts trade on individual stories In market stress, they trade as one basket That hurts alts more than BTC BTC is still the cleanest macro asset in crypto, most alts are still venture-style risk assets with public liquidity So my view is simple: I can respect strength in $ZEC, $NEAR, $HYPE and other leaders I can even hold some names with real fundamentals But I will not ignore the main rule of crypto cycles: - when BTC goes down with force - strong alts become the last positions people sell before the market resets The real edge is knowing when that outperformance stops being accumulation and starts becoming distribution

No.0 picture
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information. Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.