I've been watching the transfer of contracts on $ZEC on this move up, and that paired with rising open interest is one of the main reasons this run up has been explosive. When transfer of contracts spikes, it means a meaningful amount of perp size actually changed hands at those prices. Traders being forced in or out of positions at a premium markup. Most of the time when that metric spikes, open interest is flat or dropping. Positions are closing. Shorts getting carried out, longs capitulating. Great for a squeeze, but not something that gives me confidence for continuation. What's occurring here is different. Transfer of contracts peaked near the highs around $390 and open interest climbed from roughly $200M to $300M with price. Fresh size is stepping in behind the breakout and holding. As long as that relationship holds (elevated transfer of contracts with OI climbing behind it) I’ll keep looking for continuation rather than assuming every spike is the top of a potential squeeze.

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