One thing I’m asking myself right now with ripple:native is, am I being too cute with my entry? We could argue that $1.30 is the range low, with a range high around $1.60. Whichever way you look at it, if you’re trading that range, this could be a good place to enter anyway. But I’m still looking for my entry at $1.22. With that being said, yesterday we closed the majority of the fair value gap left from the 16th of September, and I’m wondering whether we hold this level as a range low. Obviously, we won’t know until later, but let’s look around the market and see if we can find some answers. Looking at Bitcoin here, what do we see? First, we saw a range form at what I think was the top of Bitcoin’s wave 3. We then swept the bottom of that range, potentially creating the wave 4 pullback. That’s the first curve you can see below our horizontal line, where we wicked down and took the liquidity. We then pushed higher and formed a second range, with a base around $80K and a high around $87K. We recently swept that range low on the 15th of October. It’s a similar structure: sweep the low, then push on higher. So there’s definitely an argument for that happening again. But I still feel there are two potential paths here for a three leg correction following a five wave impulsive move to the upside. One is the shallow correction, which, as I say, could already be complete. The other is the deeper correction, with the ABC legs labelled in green. That’s the scenario I’m personally still leaning towards, although I’m questioning whether yesterday’s shakeout was enough. If you look at altcoins like XRP, we almost retested the lows, whereas Bitcoin held a higher low. But that also brings me back to Bitcoin dominance. If dominance starts drawing liquidity towards Bitcoin here, alts could still see some weakness. Bitcoin dominance on the weekly looks like it’s breaking out of what I would describe as a pennant pattern, potentially heading higher. This is often what we see in early bull markets. Bitcoin leads the way and draws in liquidity. Then, when Bitcoin pauses, that liquidity rotates into alts. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin can’t pull altcoins up with it. It might simply mean that Bitcoin outperforms. Generally, if you look at liquidity here, it still suggests that the best area for an entry in terms of risk to reward is below us, somewhere between $1.24 and $1.22, potentially down to $1.20. That doesn’t mean this liquidity has to be swept. But as I’ve been saying for a long time, I’d like to see it taken. I’d be much more bullish if that happened. There’s a similar dense pocket on ETH, which is why I’m still in my ETH short. I hope all of this makes sense. This is a decent area for a long at the range lows in terms of risk to reward, but I still think there’s a more optimal entry below us. I went into more detail on these structures in yesterday’s newsletter.
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