Revisiting this from a month ago... @Plasma One's buyback case rests on the Earn vault growing alongside its own cashback payouts - right now it isn't holding. • TVL → $13.6M to $15.96M (+17%) • $XPL cashback distributed → 2.32M to 5.5M tokens (+137%) • $XPL sits flat near $0.090 despite card spend doubling to $19.66M • The largest Earn wallet (13.29% of TVL) hasn't added a meaningful amount since Three things plausibly explain the float side specifically: > July 28 unlock now inside two weeks > Unresolved OCC affiliate-yield rule > Platinum lock hike to 150k XPL All three are reasons to hesitate on locking or depositing XPL right now. None of them touch what else showed up in the same data pull. Two things they don't explain: > Unactivated share widened, 63% to 67%, despite registered users up 58%. That's a funnel problem, unrelated to token dynamics. > The second-ranked spender ($500k across 3 tx) is frozen exactly at that number, and two more low-frequency six-figure wallets have since appeared on the leaderboard. Spend-side behaviour, not deposit-side. The float not keeping pace with what it owes is the one variable that's testable now, and it's failing. The other two patterns are open questions, not yet explained by anything above.