A major deleveraging wave is sweeping across the US ETF market: The notional value of the 200 largest US ETFs has declined -$100 billion, or -20%, over the last month, to ~$400 billion, the lowest since May. This metric represents total market exposure provided by these ETFs, including the impact of leverage. For example, a leveraged ETF with $100 billion in assets and 2x leverage would provide $200 billion in notional exposure. This follows a +$200 billion, or +67%, surge since the March 30th market bottom. By comparison, the notional value declined -$130 billion, or -37%, from its November 2024 peak to the April 2025 bottom. Despite the recent decline, leveraged ETF exposure remains +100% above the peak level seen during the 2021 meme stock frenzy. Leverage is catalyzing severe volatility.
The Kobeissi LetterShare
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