circle paid coinbase $908m last year. that's 33% of total revenue gone under a deal where coinbase takes 100% of USDC reserve income on platform balances plus 50% of everything else. contract renegotiates august 2026. even a modest improvement to those terms is a $300-400m/year profit swing for CRCL. the market gave a 7% pop on an arc token exploration headline worth maybe $50m in speculative value. the coinbase renegotiation is worth 10x that in NPV and nobody is modeling it because reading contract terms isn't as fun as trading narratives