source avatarsleepy

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TSMC’s biggest competitor may be shifting from Samsung and Intel to Taiwan’s power grid. Taiwan Power Company recently released forecast data showing that Taiwan’s semiconductor-related industries are expected to consume 52 billion kWh of electricity by 2026, accounting for approximately 18% of the island’s total power usage. By 2035, this figure is projected to surge to 110 billion kWh, representing 30% of total consumption. In other words, in less than a decade, nearly one out of every three kilowatt-hours consumed in Taiwan will be used to manufacture chips, perform packaging, and produce related equipment. Even more striking is Taiwan Power Company’s plan to build or expand 43 substations and lay 1,922 kilometers of transmission lines over the next 15 years. Yet, even the construction of a single substation in Taipei’s Songhu area took 26 years from planning to groundbreaking. This raises an intriguing point: TSMC can spend tens of billions of dollars annually to expand capacity and continuously advance its process technology, but the construction timelines for power plants, substations, and transmission lines simply cannot keep pace with the semiconductor industry’s expansion. Moreover, Taiwan heavily relies on imported energy, and its power supply is further complicated by issues such as energy transition, land use, and electricity pricing. Capital can rapidly generate demand for computing power and accelerate chip technology iterations—but it cannot quickly expand a region’s energy infrastructure. When an industry begins consuming nearly one-third of a society’s total electricity, its expansion costs can no longer be confined to corporate balance sheets alone. In the future, the upper limit of advanced chip production may truly depend on how quickly Taiwan can deliver power to its fabs.

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