Samsung and SK Hynix’s projected net profits over the next three years are 1.4 times South Korea’s total government debt (JPMorgan estimate). TSMC’s net profit last quarter was NT$706.6 billion, annualized at NT$2.8 trillion—compared to Taiwan’s total national debt of NT$6.35 trillion. This wave of AI concentration occurs at two levels: leadership in the model layer lasts months—open source models catch up within three months; leadership in the hardware layer lasts decades—building a factory takes three years, achieving high yields takes thirty years, and entry costs start at tens of billions of dollars. Every dollar burned by model companies ultimately becomes profit for these few manufacturers. In the AI war, it’s the arms dealers who get paid.
Kris | AllocoShare

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