Tesla just posted a celebration: it has produced its 10 millionth vehicle worldwide. Six years ago, it had only reached 1 million units, primarily through mass production of just two models: the Model 3 and Model Y. During the same period, data shows that in China, 542 new car models were launched from January to May this year—averaging 3.6 new models per day. Of these, fewer than 200 were truly new designs; the rest were facelifts or minor updates. On one side, two models sold 10 million units. On the other, hundreds of models are being rolled out like smartphones, constantly refreshed. Both approaches likely believe they’re doing nothing wrong. Tesla focuses intensely; domestic automakers chase probability, pressured by competition to continuously launch new models and updates, flooding the market with marketing. This reminds me of two investment styles. Some investors heavily bet on a single stock for a decade; others switch sectors every month, chasing trends. The former earns compound returns; the latter earns through probability. Yet it seems far more likely that Tesla will endure—the sand sifts away, and those who realize less is more must have a well-established system of judgment and manufacturing. Investing is the same: the longer-term survivors are increasingly those who built their own systems earliest and have full confidence in them.
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