source avatarGlobal Markets Investor

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🚨HIGHER FOR LONGER IS BACK IN FULL SWING: The 10-year Treasury yield has settled above 5% for the first time since 2007. Unlike the brief 2006-2007 episodes, the current move is being driven by a broader combination of renewed inflation concerns, expectations for higher Fed rates, heavy government borrowing, and growing fiscal concerns. Massive AI investment is also increasingly being financed with debt, adding to demand for capital and putting further pressure on bond markets. History shows that the 10-year yield can remain above 5% for extended periods, with long stretches recorded in 2006, 2002, and 1999-2000. Meanwhile, before September 1998, the 10-year yield remained above 5% for more than two decades. The 5% level is now a critical threshold for Treasuries.

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