source avatarPeter -CT

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Strategy bought $75.7M of its own STRC preferred stock in one week this month. It bought $174M of bitcoin. That's the wrong way round, and almost nobody is talking about it. STRC pays a 12% annual dividend. When a company with a treasury full of BTC chooses to retire 12% paper instead of adding coins, it's telling you what it thinks its own cost of capital is worth versus the marginal bitcoin. That's a capital allocation signal, not a buy signal. The crowd reads "Strategy" and assumes accumulation. The filings say otherwise. Meanwhile the flow that's actually moving: a single wallet has swapped 1,308 BTC ($104M) into ETH over six days and staked all of it. A 14-year dormant wallet just moved 600 coins. Google and Apple are both hiring crypto people. The marginal buyer of BTC right now is not the same buyer that was here in August. Glassnode's own data says leverage is rebuilding in options, put/call ratios climbing, perps still muted. That reads as hedging, not euphoria. Good. Froth is what kills rallies, not fear. Here's my contrarian read: everyone is watching $BTC at $86k for the next leg up. The tell is what the largest corporate holder does with its own preferred stock. If Strategy keeps retiring STRC instead of buying coins, the treasury-company bid that carried this market is quietly thinning. Watch the next 8-K. If bitcoin purchases outpace preferred buybacks again, I'm wrong and the bid is intact. I'd rather be early on a structural shift than late on a narrative.

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