$SPX $SPY The 2018 parallels are getting hard to ignore. • Both midterm years under Trump • Both broke the 20W EMA twice, the first a shallow pullback • Both ran higher after, peaking roughly 6 months later • Both then closed below the 20W a second time • In 2018, that second break led to a test of the 200W EMA The kicker: Longest stretch without touching the 200W EMA since 2008 was 50 months (Dec 2011 to Feb 2016). We're now at 49 months since Oct 2022. Whether this rhymes with 2018 probably comes down to the next few weeks. Price is probably going to get a retest of the 20W EMA. Reclaim it, likely the end of the correction, rejecting it we face a steep downturn.