🏦 Fed decision this Wednesday. Here’s why the first market move may not tell you much. In September 2024, the Fed surprised with a 50 bps cut. The S&P 500 initially jumped as much as 1%, then reversed and closed 0.29% lower. History tells a similar story: 📉 1998: stocks briefly retested their lows after the Fed began cutting, then recovered to new highs by December. 📉 2019: the S&P 500 fell 5.6% after the first cut before recovering and reaching a new high by October. Now, the Fed meets again on October 28. Markets currently put the probability of a hike at only around 9-10%, with a hold overwhelmingly expected. So the real question may not be “hike or hold?” It’s what the Fed signals comes next. 👀