Today's ODTE expiration is a volatility regime reset, not a rally trigger. $6.2T expires today. $9.6T by Friday. 35% of the entire U.S. options market. • SPX 0DTE Net GEX: -10.28B Net GEX • 0DTE share of SPX volume: ~63% • 1-month SPX puts: cheapest since Dec 2024 • SPX levels: 7600 (put wall) / 7615 (pivot) / 7640-7645 (HVL) / 7700 (call wall) • SPY walls: 760/762 Negative gamma means dealer hedging amplifies moves, not cushions them. Once these positions expire, the shock absorber disappears. The winter rally case rests on seasonality (~1.3% Santa Claus rally) and earnings, not today's flows. But the setup is complicated: dot plot shows no cuts through 2028, 10Y near 5%. Two variables for the post-expiry week: 1. Does the 10Y hold below 5%? 2. Does dealer repositioning create a vacuum? If the shock absorber is already thin, does the post-expiry week amplify the next move or does seasonality take over?
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