SEPTEMBER: THE WORST PERFORMING MONTH FOR MARKETS IS BRINGING BACK THE SAME RISKS The index has fallen in around 55% of Septembers since 1928, with an average return of -1.1%. But it does not fall every year. Five of the last ten Septembers were positive. The average was dragged down by a few major sell-offs, including a 9.3% fall in 2022 when the Fed was aggressively raising rates. And a similar risk is returning this September. Oil and Treasury yields are already rising, bringing inflation fears back. Today’s strong jobs report has made another Fed rate hike more likely. But the S&P entered September after reaching a record high in August, gaining 12.3% in 2026. The government is also trying to calm oil and bond markets before the November midterm elections. Now, the next inflation report could decide which side wins. If inflation remains high and the Fed raises rates, September could live up to its reputation. But if inflation cools and the Fed pauses, falling yields could push the S&P 500 even higher.