Wall Street expects S&P 500 profits to jump 32% next year. That's a huge number. We've only seen growth this fast twice before: after 2008 and after Covid. But in both those cases, estimates had just been slashed (down 38% and 22%). So the "boom" was really just a bounce back from a low bar. This time estimates barely fell, just 6%. There was no crash to bounce back from. That means companies don't get to coast on beating low expectations. They actually have to hit these high numbers. If they don't, there's nothing cushioning the fall. (image from Yahoo finance)
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