THIS HAS MARKED EVERY MAJOR STOCK MARKET TOP SINCE 2000. Margin debt just jumped 53.7% in a year, hitting a record $1.4 trillion, according to Leuthold Group. That growth rate has only been matched right before the 2000, 2007, and 2021 tops. The S&P 500 only returned about 22% over the same period, roughly half the pace of margin debt growth. People aren't just buying stocks. They're borrowing money faster than the market is actually rising. The AI trade is likely pulling in much of this leverage, and leveraged ETF assets nearly doubled in just two months last spring. If a single AI or data center stock cracks, the concentrated buying power behind this rally could unwind just as fast, triggering margin calls across the same cluster of investors. H/T @LeutholdGroup
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