S5TH (% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day MA) $SPX closed at a new all-time high near 7,365. S5TH sits at ~55.9%. The new highs are not being confirmed by broader participation. Two months ago, broader participation was breaking down with SPX around 6,477. Today the index is up nearly 14% to new highs, but S5TH has only recovered to the mid-50s. Short-term participation is even weaker, with about 53% of stocks above their 50-day MA. A small group of high-quality AI and tech leaders with strong earnings momentum continues to carry the index amid the ongoing AI capex cycle. This concentration is in genuine earnings compounders, and that matters. Yet the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) and roughly half the market sit below key moving averages, meaning the rally is narrower than the headline index suggests. Healthy rallies typically see S5TH expand toward 70%+ near all-time highs. At ~55.9%, we are still well short of that level of broad confirmation. A small group of stocks can carry the market for a while, but it’s still vulnerable if they slow down or the rest of the index doesn’t join in. Are you buying these new highs, trimming, or waiting for the rest of the market to catch up?

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