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Samsung can grow DRAM wafers and still leave commodity buyers short. That is the part that matters. KB Securities walks the capacity math. Monthly DRAM wafer output rises about 14% this year and about 16% next year. HBM’s share of that capacity is what moves: roughly 27% last year, 33% this year, about 40% next year. Standard DRAM’s share falls from about 73% to 65% to 59%. HBM just eats more wafers per bit, and the new tools get pointed at HBM and high-capacity server parts first. So the fab is larger, and the open market is tighter. Inventory is under 10 days. Spot and non-LTA buyers take what is left after hyperscaler contracts. That is constructive for the whole memory complex, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, on HBM mix and on commodity pricing power. Forward multiples still have room if the mix keeps doing this work.

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