source avatarPaul Mampilly🇺🇸

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The jobs report is being blamed for the crash in $SMH semiconductor stocks. Truth is at the rate they were rising, daily by 10%, 15%, something like this was setting up to happen sooner rather than later. From experience, this is just what happens in a bubble. At some point, something triggers the end. Maybe its the $SPCX IPO, or that $GOOGL just raised $85 billion and that $META now says it wants to raise 10s of billions or that Anthropic and Open AI are looking to extract another $100 - $150 billion from investors. Bottom line, this bubble like all bubbles is and was unsustainable. Everyone wants to know what will happen next. Will the "blood bath" continue. My experience from 1999/2000 is that once the momentum behind the bubble ends, its hard to get it back going again. Instead, in a violently volatile way, you'll see a jagged back and forth trade, as gains give way to losing days, weeks and then months. Gains will slowly turn to losses, first for folks who jumped into the bubble late, and then gradually to many others. Many will fight the down trend, betting on a turnaround. And you can see that people are looking to buy into the so called "blood bath" being chattered about on social media. $MU and others are just back to where they were a few days ago. Semiconductor stocks are up 100s if not 1000s of percent in the last 12 - 24 months. In other words, if I'm right there's plenty to go for this bubble to really deflate. I'm not short these stocks. And Mampilly Research has no short positions on these stocks. We have periodically bet on reversals in this bubble using calls on leveraged ETFs like $SOXS $SQQQ $SPXS That will come as no surprise to our members who I've been telling for months now that the semiconductor bubble was hitting dangerous levels. However, we're not taking any big bet on the bubble bursting. We just treat it like any other trade, a trend that we think has potential to produce short term profits through options for our members. In fact we just closed one set of these trades out on Friday making 40% - 60%. And into big rallies, we're likely to keep using these kinds of strategies to bet that the bubble in semis is over. And that from here, the trend is down.

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