source avatarShepard

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Inflation is still not under control. Here is where the market is heading next. $QQQ is down 1.2% after a hot CPI print. The market expected inflation to cool. It didn’t. Headline CPI rose 0.4%. Expected was 0.3%. Core rose 0.3%. Expected was 0.2%. The market is pricing that in today. Yesterday’s green day shows it: the market doesn’t know where it wants to go yet. On the chart, price lost the 200 SMA at $681.40 again. The smaller trend is in a correction. Price can fall back to $660.11 and $646.19 without breaking the bigger uptrend. My main scenario is a few more percent down. The zone down to $635.72 comes into play. That is the top of the old range, the base of the last markup. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement lines up right at the same level. Not on my chart, but a nice confluence. From there I expect the next leg up. The alternative: if $635.72 doesn’t hold, the zone down to $596.14 opens up. That is the bottom of the old range. The bigger trend is intact. Macro and fundamentals are solid. I expect new all time highs in the coming months.

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