As said, NDX relative to SPX still trades below the Kijun (deep red) on a monthly chart. In April '22, NDX relative to SPX fell and closed below Kijun signalling the beginning of the '22 bear market. Since NDX relative to SPX pushed up through and closed above Kijun in March '23 signalling the beginning of the current bull market, NDX relative to SPX has only closed below Kijun right after, that was in April '23 (red arrow). However, that close below Kijun materialized right after NDX relative to SPX exited the bear market. Today, we are in a multi-year bull market. So, a close below Kijun would look quite similar to the close below Kijun in April '22. Therefore, I think it's fair to say that bulls want a close for November in NDX relative to SPX above Kijun. When will I add to my longs? When NDX relative to SPX trades above Kijun; I don't need to buy the exact bottom in tech & growth. On the contrary, I want to see some technical confirmation that we are through the woods regarding the sell off in tech & growth. A relief rally into moving averages isn't enough; the danger of rejections across the board into key moving averages is still present. Bulls need to put in the effort and push NDX relative to SPX back above Kijun and secure a monthly close for November above Kijun. Otherwise, we might be on our way into a bear market. $QQQ $SPY $RSP
Dorte JelstrupShare

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