If you invest in growth stocks like those John Lupton once promoted and Shay Boloor (reportedly down 35% YTD) now promotes, understand what you’re signing up for. Perhaps only one in ten growth stocks will ever deliver, while portfolio drawdowns of 30%, 50%, or even 60% are very real possibilities. Shay himself admitted only yesterday that he started trading growth stocks just three years ago. Many of the names he promotes have reportedly fallen 30% to 80%, some even 90%. Of course, he wasn’t going to tell you to sell at the peak. And I don’t entirely blame him. How much skill can anyone develop in just three years? The real problem is people blindly following paid stock promoters without demanding a verifiable long-term track record. Over the weekend, we saw performance figures published for several subscription services turned money managers. Even Hedgeye has reportedly underperformed the index since inception, and by a considerable margin, despite constantly mocking both Scandinavian fund managers and CMTs who have struggled to beat the market themselves. The Scandinavian fund managers and economists turned money managers are discovering that producing sophisticated analysis and uploading beautiful charts are two very different things from actually making money. As for CMTs, has anyone ever seen one with a verifiable long-term track record of beating the market? I certainly haven’t. All former market heroes. Smart writing, impressive presentations, and pretty charts don’t equal superior returns. I have nothing personal against these people. They seem nice, and nobody forced anyone to subscribe. But when you charge for investment services, you open yourself up to public scrutiny. People have every right to question what you’re selling and whether it’s worth paying for. Let’s not pretend that if your portfolio is down 35% YTD while the Nasdaq is up 7%, everything is fine. It’s not. You underestimated the risks. Nobody willingly signs up to make 100% one year only to lose 30%, 50%, or more the next. Losing a third of your savings is devastating, particularly when there’s no guarantee you’ll ever recover it. And here’s the fundamental difference between investing in broad indices and individual growth stocks. Historically, the $SPX and $QQQ have eventually recovered from major drawdowns and reached new highs. Future recovery isn’t guaranteed, but the historical record is clear. Individual growth stocks are another story. Many of those that collapsed in 2021 still haven’t recovered five years later. Some never will. Others that collapsed recently may not recover by 2030, if ever. The index can recover while your stocks never do. Even if you’re down 90%, selling can still be the right decision. Your purchase price is irrelevant to what a business is worth today. We don’t invest for sport. We do it to feed our families, build a better future, and achieve our dreams. The average investor deserves to understand these risks before putting hard-earned savings into someone’s stock picks. I suppose it’s human nature to follow false gods, false prophets, false messiahs, and cling to false promises and false hopes. Despite all the jokes and sarcasm on X, this is not a game. This is real money, real lives, and real consequences. Hope is not a strategy.