source avatarCaleb Franzen

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Today will be one of the most important trading days of 2026. This is why... On Monday of this week, the Nasdaq-100 $QQQ fell below its anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) from the March 2026 lows. This means, mathematically, that the average buyer since the lows (during a period where the index gained +34.6%) is actually at a loss on their position. By definition, it's harder to justify an asset being in an uptrend over a specific timeframe if the average holder over that timeframe is underwater. You see where I'm going with this, right? Yesterday's +3.3% gain for the index brought us right back to the scene of the crime... the AVWAP from the March 2026 lows. Funny enough, something similar happened during the Q1'26 selloff with respect to the AVWAP from the April 2025 lows. Quick head-fake below, reclaim, massive rally. In other words, today is a huge test. Either: • We reject and continue lower • We breakout and thrust higher Given the pre-market action and strong earnings from $AMZN, it looks like the Nasdaq-100 is going to break above this level at the open. But it's now about how you start, it's about how you finish. Just ask that Leopold guy. Anyways... I'll be paying close attention to this today. And so should you.

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