ANTHROPIC DROPPED A GUIDE ON POLYMARKET TRADING BOTS AND NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT 6-step agent pipeline. Claude as the brain. Runs on the CLOB API. Built by the same team that built Claude. Here's what it actually does: Step 1 - Scan 300+ active markets filtered by liquidity, volume, and time to resolution Step 2 - Research Parallel agents scrape Twitter, Reddit, RSS NLP sentiment per market Compares narrative signal against current odds Step 3 - Predict XGBoost + LLM calibrate true probability vs market price Fires only when confidence exceeds threshold Step 4 - Risk 4 rules before any trade executes: edge = p_model - p_market > 0.04 size <= kelly(f, bankroll) exposure + bet <= max_exposure VaR(95%) within daily limit Step 5 - Execute Orders placed via Polymarket CLOB API on-chain Slippage monitored Auto-hedge if conditions shift pre-settlement Step 6 - Compound 5 agents extract loss cause + prevention Save to knowledge base Future scans search past cases first Simulated backtest over 90 days: Win Rate: 68.4% Sharpe: 2.14 Max DD: -4.2% Profit Factor: 1.84 Full breakdown + core formulas in the article👇