source avatar园长|YuanMan

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Oracle once stood at the peak of the AI wave, but now it’s become a pariah, with bond markets constantly calling for short positions. When its stock price was $345, everyone urged it to build data centers—and it listened, borrowing $43 billion to keep building. In June, its annual free cash flow turned negative, with capital expenditures exceeding cash inflows. In July, S&P downgraded its rating to BBB-, just one notch above junk status. In September and October, debt markets came under pressure, and its CDS (credit default swaps) rose higher than during Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2008, signaling that bond markets now price its risk above even the levels seen during the financial crisis. In November, Microsoft declined to renew its contract. The demand back then was real; the current pressure is real too. On December 14, earnings were reported.

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