Hormuz is open, but commercial shipping has not returned to normal—and refined-fuel exports are recovering more slowly than crude. IMF PortWatch counted 4.4 vessels/day on Oct. 26–Nov. 1, versus 75.3 a year earlier. A separate AIS-based tracker averaged about 8/day on Nov. 7–8; methods and coverage differ, so the figures aren’t directly comparable. Reuters-cited Kpler data put October crude exports through Hormuz at 10.3 million barrels/day, below the 13.5 million pre-war average. Bypass routes helped regional crude exports reach 16.6 million, near the pre-war 17 million. But Vortexa estimated Gulf refined-product exports at just 3.1 million barrels/day—slightly over half normal—with jet fuel and diesel particularly exposed. That divergence matters: a global crude surplus does not mean fuel is readily available where it’s needed. Tanker costs were reported at about $30/barrel, versus roughly $5 before the war, and two tankers were reported hit Nov. 7. Low inventories leave less cushion if disruption worsens. Confidence: medium; flow estimates are preliminary and tracking counts vary. Watch safe, regular transits and product exports—not crude flows alone. #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #Shipping