US prices FELL 0.4% in June. PS. New music for old followers Sounds like victory. Then you check how rare that is. 951 monthly CPI prints since 1947. Only 17 ever fell this hard. The full list: the 1948-50 postwar bust, the 1986 oil crash, Katrina's wake, three months of 2008 (incl. the all-time record, -1.8% in Nov), the 2015 oil crash, two Covid lockdown months. And now June 2026. In 79 years, a month like this has never come from calm, healthy disinflation. It comes from something breaking. This time it was oil: gasoline is 4% of the CPI basket, fell 9.7%, and delivered -0.39pp of a -0.4% print. One small bar did all of it. Another catch: the ceasefire that crushed crude is already dead. WTI closed $70.56 on Jun 30, $79.20 by Jul 13. AAA pump price back at $3.99 and climbing.
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