The hard pill to swallow for many is that the AI infra trade may be over for a while. On October 16th, many AI growth leaders broke below their 30-week SMA, confirming the beginning of the sector's Stage 4 decline. I've seen arguments suggesting that because the AI buildout must carry on, the AI infra trade must stay alive. I agree that the buildout will continue—but the dot-com crash didn't stop the internet buildout, so I doubt the AI stock decline will stop the AI buildout. No doubt, we will see some impressive rallies within this downtrend to draw in more liquidity and make people dismiss or forget about the structural decline. But until we see a new structural shift, the primary trend remains down. Granted, the high-quality tech giants that are 'too big to fail' should eventually recover given enough time. But more than half of these names—especially the speculative ones—will probably never regain their highs.
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