https://t.co/TBbtSCBMna That popular stock has fallen by the daily limit for two consecutive days! U.S. CPI data is due tomorrow, and concerns over NVIDIA’s CEO Jen-Hsun Huang are growing. #nisa #NikkeiAverage #USstocks #AssetBuilding Masaki Okuoka [MBA holder, 31 published business books] #AIsummary Nikkei Average Surges 1,340 Points! U.S. CPI and NVIDIA Earnings Set to Be Market Turning Points 🔳 Nikkei Average Rebounds Sharply After Six Trading Days On November 9, the Nikkei Average rose 1,340 points (+2.33%), marking its first significant rebound in six trading days. The TOPIX also gained 2.97%, and trading volume on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market reached approximately ¥8.9 trillion. However, the analyst views this as a technical rebound within a broader range of consolidation, not a definitive trend reversal. 🔳 U.S. CPI Release Is a Key Short-Term Market Catalyst The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release on November 10 at 10:30 p.m. Japan time, is a major focal point. Although a slowdown in October’s inflation rate is anticipated, if the data exceeds expectations, it could intensify fears of further monetary tightening and reignite market volatility. 🔳 NVIDIA Earnings and CEO Concerns NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report next week is another critical event. The analyst highlights media reports regarding CEO Jen-Hsun Huang’s personal life and questions surrounding his accountability to the U.S. Congress, raising concerns about potential management risks. However, allegations of honey traps or CEO succession remain unconfirmed and are presented as speculative. 🔳 Mixed Performance Among AI and Semiconductor Stocks While Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and Fujikura rose, Kioxia and SoftBank Group underperformed. The analyst notes that not all AI-related stocks are experiencing a broad rebound—investors are increasingly selecting individual stocks with care. 🔳 Kioxia Continues Downward Trend Kioxia fell 2.46%, closing below its 200-day moving average. The analyst suggests the stock may enter a period of range-bound consolidation until clear improvements in fundamentals or supply-demand dynamics emerge, making a strong rebound unlikely in the near term. 🔳 Toyota Motors Seen as a Potential Trend Reversal Candidate Toyota Motors rose 4.58%, closing above both its 75-day and 200-day moving averages. Anticipation of easing U.S. tariff policies has spurred buying interest in auto-related stocks, including Nissan Motor. The analyst identifies Toyota as a momentum stock with potential to reverse from relatively low price levels. 🔳 Broad-Based Gains Across Industries Except Food and Shipping Of 33 sectors, 31 advanced, with buying spreading to banks, transportation equipment, and electrical machinery. Food and shipping sectors declined. Shipping stocks are weighed down by weak Chinese economic data and sluggish freight rates. 🔳 JT Faces Strong Selling Pressure After Two Consecutive Limit Down Days JT fell by the daily limit for two consecutive trading days amid concentrated sell orders. The analyst attributes this to external factors related to its Russian business operations. Despite a dividend yield of 5.16%, the outlook remains uncertain, leading to a cautious stance on purchasing. 🔳 Stable Oil Prices Support Stock Market Rebound The retreat of oil prices from recent highs has likely improved investor sentiment. Rising energy prices fuel inflation fears and expectations of higher interest rates; thus, lower oil prices ahead of the CPI release are viewed as favorable for markets. 🔳 VIX Index Remains at Cautionary Levels at 24 Points The U.S. VIX volatility index remains elevated at around 24 points. During the Trump tariff shock in April 2025, it surged to 40–50 points; the analyst warns that market anxiety could still intensify further. 🔳 Nikkei Average VI Rises to Around 40 Points The Nikkei Average VI, which measures expected volatility of the Nikkei, has climbed to approximately 40 points—signaling even stronger caution than the U.S. VIX. The analyst suggests that concentrated capital flows into AI and semiconductor stocks, coupled with their high volatility, are amplifying overall market instability. 🔳 Warning Against Leveraged Bets on AI Stocks During the surge in AI and semiconductor stocks, chasing high prices with leverage is extremely risky. A sharp market correction could wipe out long-term gains in a short time; investors must resist the urge to panic-buy out of fear of missing out. 🔳 Risk of Another Selling Climax Depending on the outcome of the CPI data or developments surrounding NVIDIA, another selling climax—where investors rush to liquidate positions—could occur. However, accurately predicting short-term price direction remains difficult; investors should remain cautious and prepared for both further declines and subsequent rebounds. 🔳 U.S. Stocks May Be Forming a TopThe Dow Jones Industrial Average shows a chart pattern resembling a triple top or double top. However, the speaker notes that such patterns can only be confirmed retrospectively and do not necessarily signal an imminent decline—if the uptrend resumes, the pattern may simply be interpreted as a consolidation phase. 🔳 Deterioration of Leading Economic Indicators and Recession Concerns The U.S. leading economic indicators have weakened, raising concerns about a potential recession. There is a view that, in hindsight, the recession may be determined to have begun around September–October 2026. 🔳 Expectations for a Year-End Christmas Rally If market anxieties surrounding CPI data and corporate earnings subside, a year-end Christmas rally—characterized by rising stock prices—could emerge. While trading volumes are showing signs of recovery, the speaker cautions that it is premature to definitively conclude that the upward momentum will continue. 🔳 Time Diversification and Capital Management Are Crucial in Investing Rebounds following sharp declines often occur rapidly, making it difficult to precisely time the onset of an uptrend. Therefore, it is essential to spread out purchase timing and avoid concentrating capital at any single point. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of mental discipline and continuous improvement through investment record-keeping, alongside sound investment strategies. 🔳 Key Watchpoints: CPI, NVIDIA Earnings, and Market Sentiment Although the Nikkei 225 rebounded sharply, concerns remain unresolved, including fears over AI data center regulations and elevated volatility indices. The speaker concludes that it is necessary to closely monitor U.S. CPI data, NVIDIA’s earnings report, movements in semiconductor-related stocks, and the VIX trend to determine whether a sustained upward reversal is underway—or whether another decline is imminent.