The market just had a once-in-8000-years day. Nasdaq −6.36%. $2.3T gone. Semis −20% in 5 days. Wall Street is split: 1998 or 2000? 1998: Crash on LTCM, Fed cut, Nasdaq doubled into 2000. 2000: Fed hiked, bubble popped, −78%. Today looks more like 1998 without the Fed rescue yet. Real earnings, cheap multiples (NVDA ~10x), forced selling from vol funds. But credit stress on AI data centers is real, and the Fed is still hiking. Three switches decide it: • Vol drops → forced buying • Politics on data centers softens • Credit stress stays isolated or spreads 1998 dip or 2000 trap? What are you doing?
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